Discussion: In yesterday’s article we discussed how an Upper Level Low (ULL) in the interior SW US was handing a piece of energy off to the ULL over SE Canada/NE US. This expected transformation of cyclonic energy has not changed.
Discussion: The upper level low/trough that brought Monday’s storm and the current colder conditions is currently lingering over SE Canada and the NE US. There is also an upper level low in the interior SW US trapped under strong W
Discussion: The heaviest precipitation slug has passed through New Jersey from S/SW to N/NE. Some of those downpours were intense. I know because I was in one. Remaining precipitation today will be of an isolated-to-scattered nature, no longer widespread. We
Discussion: Two upper level disturbances, from separate N and S jet streams, are combining into a single energy vort to our W in the central US. I still see this as a pattern changer. The first of many surface lows
Discussion: A pattern change is still expected to begin with a stormy Monday (Nov 30). The upper levels will be very meridional with lower height anomalies dominating as far out as I can comfortably see (out to about Dec 10).
Discussion: Nothing crazy expected for this weekend. A weak area of high pressure will float through under slightly negative height anomalies. After a very mild Thanksgiving Day and Friday, this will produce a colder Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks colder
Discussion: Some pretty wild atmospheric dynamics are showing up on model guidance for next week as we leave November and enter meteorological winter. Let’s talk a little about the teleconnection oscillations first, specifically the three which impact the E US
Discussion: A meridional but progressive upper jet pattern is expected this week. Height anomalies indicate back-and-forth positive and negative as thin and quick moving troughs and ridges try to establish with a cut-off upper level low or two. At the
Discussion: A zonal upper jet and positive geopotential height anomalies should dominate the weekend. At the surface that means mild temperatures without disturbance. Friday and Saturday looks the mildest as flow starts out of the S/SW and rocks to W/NW.
Discussion: Sunday night’s cold front was on the front of the trough that we (and most of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US) are now underneath. This means low geopotential heights and a condensed cooler lower atmosphere. Today, an upper level disturbance moved
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