Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!
Discussion: As I said before, this system is going to break a lot of snow lover hearts in SNJ (I’m one of them) while delivering a crippling winter blow to NNJ. A NNJ KABOOM. The trends in model guidance that
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Dec 14: Winter Storm Developing
Discussion: Today’s weaker event is now ending and we can focus exclusively on the higher-impacts of the Wednesday-Thursday system. Not much has changed in the model guidance. We have a surface low tracking in over the coastal Carolinas and wanting
Dec 13: Winter Storm a GO
Discussion: Just to recap a little, we’re in a -AO/-NAO/neutral PNA teleconnection pattern. The PV is moving into central-east Canada. The jet is behaving in more of a meridional manner over the US and therefore shortwave disturbances are being moved
Dec 12: Snow Event(s) Detected
Discussion: This discussion is for two separate disturbances expected to occur this coming week. The first is on Monday (Dec 14) and the second Wednesday into Thursday (Dec 16-17). For the first event on Monday, we have a trough anchored
Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…
Discussion: The upper jet will make several meridional fluctuations over the next few weeks over NJ. This should allow a few low pressure systems to pass just to the SE of NJ from W to E—putting parts of NJ on
Dec 10: Winter is Coming
Discussion: I wanted to provide a longer-range outlook today after seeing a few things. The modeled teleconnections, on the Euro Ensembles, are indicating a much stronger -AO/-NAO pattern setting in. The values take a noticeable dive in the Dec 15-18
Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ
Discussion: We’re now under the NW flow that occurs in the upper levels on the back of a trough. A very weak upper-level disturbance, and associated surface low in Canada, is going to send a piece of the energy from
Cold and Dry (Dec 7-11)
Discussion: Much of the state will drop below freezing tonight (Sunday night). The early weekend storm system for NJ went on to bring snow in parts of New England as a decent mid-latitude cyclone. The backside cyclonic flow of that
Cold Conditions (Dec 4-6)
Discussion: Model guidance indicates a very meridional jet pattern over the next few weeks with ample below-average geopotential height anomalies. At the surface this means colder temperatures and an active pattern. Whether or not one of these systems times with
Dec 3: Coastal Storm Approaching
Discussion: In yesterday’s article we discussed how an Upper Level Low (ULL) in the interior SW US was handing a piece of energy off to the ULL over SE Canada/NE US. This expected transformation of cyclonic energy has not changed.
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