Discussion: The general trends since yesterday have been a slightly more expansive jackpot region to the NW (still misses NWNJ directly) which brings a little more mixing/rain concerns for SENJ to start the event. The snow is looking very wet
Discussion: The upper pattern data is gaining confidence in the N branch digging and hanging back a little, allowing the S branch to catch up and take the upper-level trough axis to near-neutral. East coast heights respond higher and take
Discussion: Real quick, we still expect a weak disturbance moving through Friday. It seems nuisance at this point with only trace/light accumulations for NWNJ elevations. Maybe non-accumulating snow as far SE as 95. It will be out of here by
Discussion: I think it is best to address the January 31-February 3, 2021 winter storm by the phases they were laid out in our initial Jan 30 forecast article: Phase I: The Onset We had a very cold air mass
Discussion: This is quite a winter storm. I’m upgrading NNJ to DUDE WHERE’S MY CAR? status. There’s no doubt in my mind that areas up that way exceed 24” of total storm snow accumulation in many spots. Some of you
Discussion: I’m going to break this winter storm into three phases of expectations. Phase I: Precipitation is currently approaching from the W. It’s just now getting into the Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio area and starting to build the initial snow thump expected for
Discussion: I’m sorry but no map yet. There is still significant uncertainty as to where the exact jackpot axis of snowfall is going to set up through NJ and ultimately where the NW cutoff and SE snow/rain line will be.
Discussion: The coastal storm that missed us to the S (bringing a swath of snow through parts of NC/VA) has departed well into the Atlantic Ocean. The backside of this cyclonic flow has pulled down more cold from the available
Discussion: The weak wave has just about passed. Just another small batch of light precip is expected to move through NNJ later tonight and taper off by early Wednesday AM hours. The primary low involved in the generally weak transfer
Discussion: Precipitation just ahead of a warm front (currently over KY/WV/VA) is moving in from our SW. It should first move into SWNJ anytime after sundown tonight as snow and then try to spread into SENJ and maybe even CNJ
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