Discussion: The key upper-level change for this weekend is the dissolution of the upper-level low/trough in the E US and the establishment of a weak ridge. This will allow the troposphere to expand (positive geopotential heights) and bring back the
Discussion: New Jersey will be under an upper-level (250mb) jet streak for most of this week. The jet will be out of the SW or S/SW from the E side of a decaying trough (centered over TN/KY). High pressure will
Discussion: That was some evening of severe weather last night! The National Weather Service at Mount Holly, NJ will be investigating several areas today where tornados likely touched down across parts of CNJ and SNJ. It was probably the tornado
Discussion: So far this morning’s warm frontal passage has been less than impressive. I woke up to a nice downpour in Ocean County but overall, precipitation has been lighter and there haven’t been any embedded thunderstorms with the first part
Discussion: Outside of a few possible isolated pop-ups (along sea breeze, etc.), we should remain mostly dry today. Temps are maxing in the low-to-mid 80s. Humidity is a little stickier in SENJ than NWNJ but overall manageable. We should also
Discussion: The 250mb upper jet is going to be over NJ for the next week or so as it rounds the top of the W US ridging and forces lower geopotential heights for the E US. This should nose a
Discussion: The bottom of a very positive axis trough is currently overhead and will dominate much of the Friday-Saturday pattern with NW flow aloft. Upper-level flow will return to more of a W/NW direction once geopotential heights relax after the
Discussion: This week we’ll see average to just below-average geopotential heights. The stubborn W US ridge will really flex this week forcing troughing in the E US. Therefore, we’re cooler and drier this week in the E US but still
Discussion: Higher geopotential heights with an upper-jet to our N (thanks to the Bermuda high return flow) should control the pattern to start this weekend. At the surface, NJ will be warm-sectored Friday and Saturday. This means relentless humidity and
Discussion: The upper-jet will stay well to the N of NJ this week, as it commonly does with summertime ridging pumped by a Bermuda high. We’ve been stuck in a W US ridge pattern however the Bermuda high has been
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