Discussion: I wanted to wait until the 00Z NAM run tonight (just ran) before putting out today’s article. And I’m glad I did. The GFS has always led the way with this system as the most aggressive (snowiest outcome) model.
Discussion: As far as this weekend goes, we still look mild and rainy in New Jersey…tonight (Friday night – New Years Eve) through Sunday night. For Saturday and Sunday, afternoon temps should range from lower-50s to upper-50s from NWNJ elevations
Discussion: The chances for snow in New Jersey on Monday continue to increase. I’ve been interested in this synoptic signal for some time now, specifically the modeled teleconnections (NAO, AO, and PNA). The NAO and AO are modeled to sharply
Discussion: Conditions should remain mundane (for December) through this weekend. Above-average temperatures and wet at times. 250mb jet analysis indicates a very zonal patten across the US meaning flat and lateral. This allows some weak surface lows to track W
Discussion: A zonal upper-level pattern should fluctuate N and S of NJ over the next week or so as heights respond appropriately with transient troughs and ridges. At the surface this means the volatile conditions should continue. A few days
Discussion: This week we’ll have fairly quiet conditions which is good news for travel-related interests (through Friday at least) but not so great for those looking for a White Christmas. Today we’re still cold in the wake of the weekend
Discussion: Temperatures soared into the 60s today (Thursday) as expected in the warm sector (after yesterday’s warm front). A cold front will push through tonight, but it looks mostly dry. Also, we’re not talking any serious drops in temperatures just
Discussion: It’s not exactly go to the beach weather but temperatures are indeed running above average. Since it’s December, that’s still kind of cold but nowhere near what’s needed to support snow. High pressure under a developing, highly anomalous upper-level
Discussion: I’m seeing a lot of speculation and fear about the frontal system expected for New Jersey later this evening. Yes, it’s true that this frontal system was part of the tornadic outbreak in the South-Central US last night. But
Discussion: We’re looking at a gradual warmup from today (Thursday through Friday) then a sharp warmup Saturday ahead of another frontal system Saturday night. Colder conditions should then move in for Sunday but the overall pattern looks very mild next
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