Discussion: Model data has been persistent on a ~Valentine’s Day winter storm signal since this past Saturday, Feb 5. The signal has ghosted in and out of day 5-9 long-range model guidance but here we are today 4 days out
Discussion: After the cold we’ve gotten used to over the 4-5 weeks, this week should feel like beach weather. Especially Friday-Saturday. We first have a weak coastal disturbance passing by today (Monday) through tomorrow (Tuesday). This should bring a cold
Discussion: A shallow trough will push all of today’s (Friday) rain-ending-wintry from NW to SE stuff out and set up a colder and much drier weekend. Mostly positive geopotential heights then move in for next week until the next likely
Discussion: High pressure is now off to our E/SE in the Atlantic Ocean providing warm and moist S/SW return flow for NJ. Many of you dealt with fog/freezing fog this morning since saturation occurred prior to surface temps warming above
Discussion: High pressure is currently offshore and will drop southward towards Bermuda by tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. This will set up a milder return flow from the Atlantic Ocean into the S and SW of NJ. This will be the mechanism
Discussion: It will take most of Monday for the deep cold E US trough to transition away but then ridging is expected to build and linger Tuesday through Friday morning. At the surface we have high pressure moving over the
Discussion: A major winter storm hit New Jersey yesterday and today (January 28-29, 2022). While it was only a light-to-significant event for some NJ areas, it absolutely KABOOMED ECNJ/SENJ with a widespread 12-18 inch snowfall. It started with a few
Discussion: A major winter storm is knocking on New Jersey’s door. Some lighter stuff has already fallen today and it looks like things are going to kick off in SWNJ/SNJ very soon. Let’s break the final forecast discussion (before live
Discussion: Okay, we’ve seen enough. It’s time to get ready for this coastal winter storm. Let’s break this forecast discussion into the following categories: Trends and Observations The models have all shifted W since yesterday’s update. Most models by a
Discussion: Models have continued to shift E with their surface output (how much snow falls and where). However the upper-levels indicate that the shift is not exactly as far E as you would think. Some models, like the GFS and
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