Discussion: A few weak N stream waves will track to our N this week with precipitation dissolving pretty much overhead. I suppose anything from flurries to snow showers are possible before it vanishes completely but it would need to fall
Discussion: A winter storm is brewing for New Jersey but snow accumulations are not the headline. Parts of NNJ might see some snow to start but the primary safety concern is ice in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain.
Discussion: Models are gaining confidence on the idea of the W US trough weakening and tracking E through the Great Lakes/New England regions between Wednesday and Saturday. This would create an environment for a weak and flat surface low to
Discussion: The upper level jet will stay to the N of NJ for most of this week with the Mid-Atlantic US under positive 500mb height anomalies. That’s a recipe for above-average temperatures and we’ll stay mild through Wednesday. I hope
Discussion: A shallow trough will pass through the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this weekend. An associated surface low will track through SE Canada and extend a cold front southward into the US. This could front should pass through NJ Saturday
Discussion: Ok all small human beings need to listen up. Thursday into Friday could be a rough night wind-wise. Let’s break it down into phases: Phase I: The Warm Sector Rip – NJ will be in the warm sector for
Discussion: Most are down into the single digits and teens already tonight. High pressure is moving through and clear skies/lighter winds will allow radiational cooling to do it’s thing. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be slightly milder than Monday but
Discussion: Today was the last of the warmer afternoon-spiking days. A cold front will pass through overnight which will drop temperatures below freezing for many heading into the light snow event. The data has trended a bit for the approaching
Discussion: This system has been beaten to death for almost 7 days now. While appearing much stronger at times on long-range model guidance, it remains modeled very weak and light over the past few days. The cyclonic vorticity never evolved
Discussion: We can’t write this late-weekend system off because it’s still bringing at least light snow to much of the state on most model guidance. The image above is a 6-hour shot of precip representing the furthest NW the system
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