Forecast Discussion: The system that began impacting New Jersey on Friday night (Sept 22) has finally cleared out (as of last night – Tuesday night). A very prolonged event originally initiated by tropical storm remnants and ultimately sustained as a
Storm Synopsis: Last week, a tropical disturbance formed a few hundred miles E of Florida. The upper low associated with the disturbance formed due south of an upper-level ridge centered over SE Canada. The ridge extended higher geopotential heights southward
Discussion: Today (Friday), I have a better idea about how this weekend should play out. With that said, the weekend outlook will be in article format today since we have an active system affecting the area through at least Monday.
Discussion: Not much has changed from a few days ago in the weekly outlook. This weekend continues to look suboptimal for outdoor plans, especially coastal areas S and E of the turnpike. Let’s break it down: A tropical disturbance is
Discussion: Nothing that interesting in the upper levels. Just a handoff of slightly higher and lower heights in mostly a zonal setup. The upper jet should become more meridional as we closer approach the weekend. At the lower levels, an
Discussion: The only disturbance I see in the upper levels is for the Sunday night into Monday period when a strong upper-jet streak will be over NJ in correlation with a small dissolving positive-axis trough. There should be a correlating
Discussion: For the first half of this week a trough will approach NJ from the W/NW and eventually bring a frontal system through on Wednesday. We’re warm (but not scorching) until then with elevated humidity. Both temps and humidity should
Discussion: The high-pressure area NE of Bermuda, that is currently steering Major Hurricane Lee to the W/NW underneath it, will provide S winds for NJ this weekend. This will be around the W side of anti-cyclonic flow. High temperatures will
Discussion: Before we get into Hurricane Lee, I want to address the rest of today and the next few days leading into the weekend. There are currently (as of Thursday Sept 7 – 4:15pm) storms firing in EPA and MD
Discussion: We should have SW flow in the mid-upper levels this week. This should sustain the warmer airmass through at least Thursday, possibly Friday despite the W/NW or even NW flow at the lower-levels. The source of the lower-level flow
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