Discussion: The colder trend came to an end on overnight ultra short-range model guidance. Therefore, expectations of how much snow could fall in New Jersey Monday morning are becoming confident. But there’s more to this storm to talk about. To
Discussion: I’ve been watching model guidance trend colder and colder, for this coming Sunday PM-Monday AM storm system, so it’s time for an update. Up until today, the data suggested a mostly rain system for New Jersey. This was because
Discussion: A decent transition from dry and mild to stormy and cold will take place between now and Monday. Weekend conditions will initially be dominated by a ridge covering most of the E US (northern 2/3). This makes the forecast
Discussion: First, I must apologize. I just got home from a work trip and I am a bit out of sorts from being unable to stay connected to the latest model guidance and live observations. But here we are now
Discussion: A ridge is currently (as of Sunday afternoon) departing the E US. With it will go our above-average temperatures and the series of disturbances that brought rain this past Friday and today (Sunday). The rest of this week should
Discussion: It’s December 1, the start of meteorological winter. If you follow my baseball-to-winter analogy, the first batter has stepped up to the plate in the first inning. We have a long ballgame to go with the 9th inning ending
Forecast Discussion: This is not a winter forecast. I am not going to tell you your fortune in the form of snow inches or ice accumulation between now and late March. Just want to be crystal clear about that. I
Forecast Discussion: I had a feeling this was likely today, as mentioned in yesterday’s weekly outlook. The coldest air of the season yet is blowing across the southern Great Lakes, picking up moisture via evaporation, and carrying it E/SE to
Discussion: I’m seeing mostly an upper level (250mb) converging split flow pattern for the E US this week. At 500mb, most data suggests a trough to start this week that yields to a ridge for this weekend and then back
Discussion: Not much to deduce from the upper levels as most flow is zonal with alternating height profiles. If you are going to travel this week, it will be dry today through tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and
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