Bring Forth the Warmth (April 10-14)

Very mild to start then just mild heading into the weekend. Let’s break it down…

Disco: High pressure will sit just N of Bermuda through about Wednesday. This will provide a warm return flow over New Jersey today and tomorrow hence the unseasonably warmer temperatures for areas away from ocean. The immediate coast is subject to cooler marine air, even with just light onshore flow. The Delaware Bay coast is subject to this as well. The ocean surface is still in the lower-40s and that has a tremendous impact when interior areas warm this time of year. A cold front should then move through on Wednesday from NW to SE. Models are not seeing much storm or precipitation activity along the front. However, this kind of set up is easily capable of producing isolated showers and possibly a few pop-ups. We’ll see. Thursday and Friday should still be mild and beautiful despite a slight chill from colder flow (still nice but not like today and tomorrow). The setup heading into the weekend looks pretty good right now as more high pressure establishes. This would make for at least a nice first-half of the weekend. Sunday is far away but could be unsettled should another front approach. Either way, more warmth! It’s still April so we should expect a few more cooler periods here and there but they should remain transient—nested between more prolonged periods of warmth. 

Monday (April 10) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s away from the ocean or Delaware Bay. These areas have the best shot at cracking 80. Immediate coastal regions are subject to cooler marine influence and might be held in the 50s/lower-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Tuesday (April 11) high temperatures should again reach well into the 70s away from the ocean or Delaware Bay. These areas have the best shot at cracking 80 and Tuesday might even be a few degrees warmer than Monday was. Immediate coastal regions are again subject to cooler marine influence and might be held in the 50s/lower-60s. If the wind is more out of the S then the coast will be cooler than if the wind is more SW. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should once again fail to dip below 50 statewide.

Wednesday (April 12) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ has a shot of breaking 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A passing line of rain showers seems like the most plausible scenario. Let’s allow a very small chance of isolated thunderstorms. Winds should rock from W/SW to W/NW with the weak frontal passage. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Thursday (April 13) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. Coastal regions could be held to the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations could be looking at a frost.

Friday (April 14) high temperatures should reach into mid-60s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should be held lower, especially with winds off the ocean. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations should hover just above frost critieria.

An early look at the weekend indicates more highs in the 60s and 70s. With the sun angle climbing higher each day, that should feel warmer and amazing. Right now I would say Saturday is the winner day of the weekend. Sunday should still be mild but unsettled conditions could produce showers. Let’s take a closer look on Thursday evening. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™