Beyond the Gray Sky

Discussion: The only upper-level feature jumping out at me is next Wednesday-Thursday in the form of a cut-off low/trough. Otherwise, it looks like a bunch of mundane and zonal flow with slight deviations + and – for height anomalies. For this weekend into next week, we have a strong trough but it’s centered over E Canada. NJ is just to the S of it so will not get in on the colder air like E Canada and parts of NE US. After that the pattern looks to progress warmer further into spring. For tonight (Friday), we have a very weak front pushing through which most model guidance suggests minimal rain through Saturday morning…tenths of an inch at most and of a very isolated-to-scattered nature. Most precip should fall between midnight tonight and sunrise Saturday morning, yielding great outdoor conditions for Saturday daytime hours (sunny and well into 60s). Sunday looks dry as well but a few degrees cooler than Saturday. After the weak/light rain tonight, I only see some rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning next week. So we actually have a mild and mostly dry week next week. Temperatures should gradually build after the Wed-Thurs system through the rest of April and into May. Seeing 70s next weekend and possibly 80s the week after. No major storm systems are on the 7-10 day forecast horizon.

Friday (April 19) high temperatures are maxing near-60 for most NJ locations. Coastal regions are still held in the 50-55 range via marine influence. Skies should remain mixed with more clouds than sun with more rain returning overnight into Saturday morning. Winds should remain light out of the E/SE as overnight lows fall into near-50 statewide.

Saturday (April 20) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most NJ locations. Some might take a run at 70 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Morning rain should end by sunrise for most but coasties will end last, possibly as late as late-morning. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (April 21) high temperatures should try hard to reach 60 for most NJ locations. Some spots might, others could fall just short. Coastal areas and NNJ elevations have the best chance to hang in the mid-50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates upper-50 to mid-60s for most NJ locations during the week with a gradual build towards 70s by next weekend. Some rain showing Wednesday night into Thursday morning but otherwise the driest week ahead I’ve seen since…I don’t know…late January? LOL! Still thinking we see a heat wave to open up May but not sure of duration. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™