Below Average but still Beautiful

Discussion: You’ve probably seen some news content about the cooler weather pattern sustaining until mid-June. That’s true. Avg NJ temps for today are ~78 and they swell to lower-80s by June 15. We may break 80 for a few days here and there but many days in the next few weeks should max out in the low-to-mid 70s. So even though this is “below average” it will still feel amazing. “Above and below average” are very relative terms. For example, “above average in January” is still cold. “Below average in April” is too cold for spring. Below average for June is basically the weather you wish for in April-May…still fantastic. It’s not like we will have days topping out in the 50s like we did in early May. We’re going to see low humidity days in the 70s. So don’t get too down on the “cooler pattern” is what I’m getting at. The triple H weather is coming (for the beachgoers). It’s just likely going to hold off until mid-month.

The Northern-Central US/Southern-Central Canadian ridge block has dominated the pattern for the past month or so. At times it was centered over the E side of the continent. It has now drifted W and allowed lower heights to move into the NE US and some of the Mid-Atlantic US. These lower heights will dominate our pattern for the next 1-2 weeks by allowing the below-average temperatures with “isolated spring showers possible” almost any day. The moisture has far less to rise in altitude in order to condense into rain/storms than in a higher height environment. This block should then break down around June 10-12 and start allowing warmer and more humid air into the region by about June 15-forward. The drier air over the next two weeks is not good for precipitation, reservoir levels, or wildfire risk. Outside of 1-2 frontal systems (Tuesday – weak and Sunday – more promising) and a few pop-ups here and there, there are no major rain systems expected. So, enjoy the gorgeous weather conditions in the near future but know the natural risks that come with it. Please be careful and do you part to prevent wildfires from forming/spreading.  

Monday (June 5) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-70s with low humidity. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds and it feels downright amazing. Winds will remain light out of the NW as overnight lows fall into the 50s for most NJ locations.

Tuesday (June 6) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most NJ locations. Many should break 80 with slightly more humidity than Monday (still not bad). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds but afternoon-evening thunderstorms are possible associated with a cold front. Doesn’t look like a decent amount off rain though. A weak and almost dry front. Winds should be light to breezy (at times) out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Rain and storms should push offshore ahead/along the cold front yielding calmer and cooler skies leading into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (June 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Cooler than how Monday-Tuesday felt. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and you can’t rule out an isolated spring shower. By no means a rainy day though. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s for most.

Thursday (June 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Very similar to how Wednesday should feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and you can’t rule out an isolated spring shower. By no means a rainy day though. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s for most.

Friday (June 9) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with occasional isolated showers. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from about 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates slightly warmer conditions building up to Sunday being the warmest day with PM showers and thunderstorms associated with another cold front. Next week would then, in-theory, start on the cooler side but end with more of a traditional summer-like heat and humidity. Right in time to head into the summer solstice.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC