This week should start with a taste of fall and end with returning summery conditions. Friday looks like the only potential nuisance day. Let’s break it down…
Disco: High pressure is currently approaching the region from the Ohio Valley. Today and tomorrow, we’ll have NW winds ahead of the anti-cyclonic flow. Winds will calm midweek when the high gets overhead and pick up from the SW when the high departs into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the week should start with drier and cooler conditions, ending with warmer and humid conditions, primarily due to the flow around said high pressure. A frontal boundary will come into close proximity of the region on Friday which could touch off a few showers and thunderstorms but models are not impressed with enough convection to justify a thunderstorm outbreak. Another area of high pressure should then move in behind that frontal boundary and bring more beautiful weather for the weekend as meteorological summer and fall keep their dukes up into September.
Monday (Aug 22) high temperatures should be held in the 70s for NNJ and elevations. SNJ and the coast should just break into the lower-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant thanks to reduced humidity. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows could dip into the upper-40s for NNJ elevations, 50s for most of the state, and lower-60s along the coast.
Tuesday (Aug 23) high temperatures should have trouble breaking 80 statewide. Several places could just reach into the lower-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant again. Winds should be very light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal regions possibly remaining just above 60. Overnight winds should be near stationary as high pressure passes directly overhead.
Wednesday (Aug 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW which should start to trickle humidity back into the equation. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most and possibly the 50s for NNJ elevations.
Thursday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-t0-upper 80s statewide. Let’s allow a small chance for interior CNJ/SNJ to flirt with 90. Skies should be mostly sunny with noticeable humidity. Even though models indicate otherwise, you can never rule out an isolated pop-up shower or t-storm on a day like this, especially if a sea breeze front comes onshore aggressively enough. But most should see continued beautiful conditions. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 70s along the coast and 60s away from the ocean.
Friday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the upper-80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could break into the lower-90s. Skies should be partly sunny and humid. Showers and thunderstorms are possible but nothing too widespread. Winds should be very light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 70s along the coast and 60s away from the ocean.
An early look at the weekend indicates a sunny but humid Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s statewide. Not seeing anything disruptive at the moment. Let’s revisit mid-week.
Stargazing Forecast: The moon will present decent lunar light pollution for stargazing once up each night. The drier air tonight and tomorrow night should still present a clear and sharp sky overall. Once we head into the weekend, the moonrise will be delayed enough for decent stargazing during the first part of the night.
Marine Forecast: Ocean temps along the beach are in the mid-to-upper 70s and even warmer water exists offshore. They could back off a bit early this week with the NW flow but return back to the upper-70s for the weekend when southerly flow returns. Even though wave heights will be 1-3/2-4 feet (average), be careful of rip currents! Listen to your lifeguards and local authorities regarding swimming conditions.
Tropical Forecast: The tropics remain active with 3 systems in the Atlantic. Please continue to monitor the Eye Wall for the latest Atlantic Ocean tropics information. Have a great week and be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC