Discussion: High pressure should move across New England on Friday and Saturday dominating the region with dry sinking air. This means lots of sun without the elevated humidity. It also means onshore flow for us given our S position to the high’s center. Sea surface temperatures are near-60. The near-peak annual sun angle should win this fight (good sunny feelz) between 10am and 7pm but look for a quick cool-down after sunset especially along the immediate coast. The good news? It likely won’t dip below the near-60 ocean temperature. It’s really only July 4-forward that ocean temps get warm enough for room temperature comfort at night during onshore flow. And again that is for coastal areas. NNJ elevations can dip cooler than ocean temps. Anyway once the high is out over the ocean (by Sunday) the flow will switch from E to S and drive unsettled conditions northward into the Mid-Atlantic US to start next week. After a stellar Friday and Saturday, Sunday PM hours should slowly tank in quality. Sunday AM hours should be ok through noon with a small chance of being ok through 5pm. Eventually rain should approach from the S/SW. A tropical system almost formed in the W Gulf of Mexico last week. Unorganized remnants from that system are expected to collect over the SE US this weekend and slide up the east coast (along a front and with the high’s departing return flow) in the form of rain/thunderstorms in the Monday-Wednesday period. This could be a soaker. The front should then stall and allow more energy, possibly synoptically organized (a weak low), to pass over NJ in the ~Thursday period. This should keep most of next week unsettled with a better look for next weekend.
Friday (June 7) high temperatures should reach near 80 for most. Maybe only mid-to-upper 70s for coastal regions. Skies should be mostly sunny with lower humidity. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (June 8) high temperatures should again reach near-80 for most with sunny skies and lower humidity. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (June 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most perhaps closer to 80 in WCNJ/SWNJ. Skies should start mostly sunny but increase in cloudiness throughout the day. Rain showers are possible especially for SWNJ from afternoon-forward. At least the first part of the day should be nice. If we luck out it will hold into the evening. Winds should start light out of the E and transition to more of a S direction. Coastal regions could see breezier onshore flow. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates unsettled conditions. Seeing rain and thunderstorm chances almost every day. That might just set up another nice weekend in a row though. Enjoy the nice weekend weather while you can and we’ll revisit next week on Sunday. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™