Beautiful Start. Hot finish (June 25-29)

Discussion: The first half of this week looks beautiful. Most areas still reach near-80 but with a pleasant feel. We can thank a Canadian area of high pressure floating through the region for this. Wednesday into Thursday then looks unsettled as return flow couples with a weak disturbance and warm front. Friday through the weekend and well into next week looks hazy, hot and humid as a strong ridge builds over the east coast and locks in with the assistance of a stubborn Bermuda high. In this kind of atmospheric profile, many could be capped via inversion (the atmosphere is so warm that exhaust, pollution and even water vapor rise becomes stunted). This is why you will likely see air quality alerts from the NWS once the really hot days get going. It looks like a front could eventually come through the weekend after the 4^th of July. Until then we bake and many hazards associated with excessive heat (exhaustion, heat stroke, etc.) are in play for those who cannot keep cool.

Monday (June 25) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should vary from light to breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (June 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could take a run at lower-80s. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (June 27) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny during the day with a chance for showers and thunderstorms during PM hours. Humidity should be noticeably increasing. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70.

Thursday (June 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. I could see some interior CNJ/SNJ locations taking a run at 90. Skies should be partly-t0-mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Pockets of rain and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (June 29) high temperatures should easily reach into the 80s statewide and likely above 90 for many areas away from the ocean. Skies should be mostly sunny but hazy, hot and humid. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates redonkulous heat. Actual highs in the 90s, possibly breaking 100 and heat indices of 100-110+ especially for interior CNJ/SNJ. Even the coast should bake above 80 with this heat wave. With such a hot and humid set up, thunderstorm development is likely at some point. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™