Discussion: An anomalous ridge over the NorthEast/Mid-Atlantic US is to blame for the current warm weather. Yes, it’s nice but out of place IMO. The more important story is the lack of rainfall pushing parts of NJ into a moderate/severe drought. I don’t see any rainfall this week or even this weekend. With any hope, we’ll see some synoptic action closer to Halloween. There has been a persistent long-range synoptic storm signal around October 30. Some of the output from this storm system has even been snowy. A more realistic expectation this time of year is a rainy nor’easter. Could it snow? Sure, I’ve seen stranger. But a cold soaker is again, more realistic in late-October and that would be great for our grounds and water tables. Here’s to hoping the storm signal plays out. For now, expect warm and dry through Wednesday then colder and dry Thursday-Friday. A quick moderation for Saturday then back to colder Saturday night into next week. Again, all dry and sunny. Beautiful days but crisp nights.
Tuesday (Oct 22) high temperatures should reach into the mid-80s again away for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should reach the mid-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a summery feel. My pumpkins are puking. It’s way too warm for this time of year IMO. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 45-55 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Wednesday (Oct 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for many NJ locations. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best chance to break 80 again. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 45-55 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (Oct 24) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Not good for forest fire concerns (dry + windy). Overnight lows should range from 30-40…quite the difference from the warm wave just a days before.
Friday (Oct 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ locations with coastal regions likely hanging just above 50.
An early look at the weekend (Oct 26-27) indicates more sunny and dry conditions. Saturday looks milder but Saturday night through Tuesday morning should be a colder period with highs capped around 60 and overnight lows down into the 30s. No rain is expected this entire week. We really need it. Hoping for some rainfall closer to Halloween. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™