Beautiful Conditions Continue (Nov 6-8)

Discussion: The 250mb jet should remain well to the N of NJ this weekend and part of next week. A 500mb ridge and surface area of high pressure will correlate with this at the levels beneath. This means mild temperatures and mostly clear skies for said period (including all of this weekend). The Wednesday-Friday period of next week looks fairly unsettled with 1-2 convergence-driven synoptic rain events. Another late-season tropical system could affect Florida with some of its remnant energy sliding up this area of convergence, but not the energy associated with the center of convection. That could hang S in Florida. For us, it would mean just rain and frontal wind, not cyclonic wind. Whether or not a few thunderstorms pop-off with the rain is something we can discuss more on Monday. That unsettled Wed-Fri period should make way for a cooler next Saturday-Sunday as the approaching front side of the high drives in cooler air from the N behind the front. Overall, it’s been an incredibly mild week and again, the pattern should last until the rainy Wed-Fri transition.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Nov 6) high temperatures are reaching near-70 for most areas. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a few clouds here and there. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.

Saturday (Nov 7) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most areas. Immediate coastal areas of ECNJ/SENJ could hang in the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Immediate coastal areas of ECNJ/SENJ could hang in the mid 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions lasting until mid-week. We should then see some kind of rainy transition in the Wed-Thurs period that will drop temperatures back to reality (for November) for the end of the week. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™