Discussion: A mostly-dry front will push through tonight from NW to SE (or close to that axis). This might bring some very light rain to parts of NJ overnight but that’s about all the rain I see until Sunday night-Monday morning. That should make for a beautiful fall weekend in New Jersey…basically an extension of the awesome conditions we’ve seen the last few days. A few degrees cooler for highs and lows maybe but still wonderful outside. A disturbance then pushes some rain across NJ between Sunday night and Monday morning with another stronger cold front. This one will have the most significant feel of change. Not sure if the super dry cooler air mass arrives by Monday night but very likely by Tuesday night. Tuesday night through the rest of next week (at least) then has a more traditional fall look and feel to it (widespread highs in the 60s lows in the 40s). So an early fall feel for this weekend and through about Tuesday. Then a later fall feel for Tuesday night-forward through the foreseeable future.
There’s some more tropical trouble for Florida brewing in the next Tues-Thurs window. A tropical disturbance looks to form in the W Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and then track eastward across the Gulf towards the W coast of Florida. Right now, it’s sort of targeting the Tampa area, and many other areas along that W FL coast recently damaged by Helene’s storm surge. This could easily form into another named storm even hurricane. It’s not what you want to see. This system currently poses no threat to New Jersey as high pressure is supposed to dominate the pattern towards the end of next week into next weekend. This tropical system should push into the Atlantic over the E FL coast by Friday and fizzle out way S of NJ latitude.
Friday (Oct 4) high temperatures have maxed in the 72-78 range across the state. A beautiful day with lots of sunshine and pleasant air mass. Winds are light out of the SW and should remain that way overnight as temps bottom out in the 55-65 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Can’t rule out a stray shower overnight but I am leaning on the drier side.
Saturday (Oct 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny, maybe a few friendly clouds here and there. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall to the 42-58 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Sunday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SE, breezier along the SENJ coast. Surf could be a little rough along the beaches of ECNJ/SENJ. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at next week (Oct 7-11) indicates nicer conditions lasting through Tuesday then a solid stepdown in temperature and humidity for Tuesday night through the rest of next week. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™