Back to Fall for a Minute

Discussion: The drought continues to worsen. We’ve had no synoptic rain systems (tropical remnants, nor’easter, coastal low, etc.) and almost every frontal passage (warm or cold) has been mostly dry through NJ. The cold front moving through today (Friday) started with some sprinkles for WNJ but dried out completely before clearing ENJ. Not good. With that said, today’s cold front will kick the anomalously warm air mass out for at least a minute (this weekend, possibly into some of Monday). Then we reload with warmth for Tuesday-Wednesday where temperature records could be broken, especially if we flirt with the 75-80 range again. After Wednesday, things appear to normalize with more of a consistent seasonably average look. The upper-jet should remain zonal over NJ/Mid-Atlantic for this weekend but then pinch up into a ridge, allowing higher geopotential heights (ridging) to rise into NJ again for the Tuesday-Wednesday warm snap. The upper-jet should then relax back into a zonal pattern for Thursday into next weekend. I so no synoptic storms or frontal rainfall possibility until the end of next weekend…which will only make the drought conditions worse.

Friday (Nov 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. You might see some interior CNJ/SNJ locations flirt with 80 by mid-afternoon. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should pick up out of the W/NW with the passage of cold front. This will lower humidity as well. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 with more crisp feel.

Saturday (Nov 2) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s with a less humid feel. Conditions more typical for this time of year. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows will then take an even steeper drop than Friday night—bottoming out in the 30-45 range with most of NJ in the 30s and only the immediate coastal areas hanging in the 40-45 range.

Sunday (Nov 3) high temperatures should only reach the mid-to-upper 50s marking likely the coldest day of the weekend. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light but come around to the N/NE. Overnight lows should again range from 30-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Nov 4-8) indicates another seasonably average day on Monday but Tuesday and Wednesday look warm. Wednesday might even threaten a few records for high temps for this time of year. We’re talking another shot at 75-80. Then we should reload cooler for next weekend.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™