Discussion: Most of NJ is mixed with sun and clouds with a dank feel today. Some near-stationary downpours and thunderstorms started this morning in Ocean County and have since (as of Sunday afternoon) spread further into SNJ/SWNJ. These cells are delivering tropical downpours and will likely fizzle with loss of sunlight later this evening. Tonight, most areas should remain dank with overnight lows struggling to dip below 70 by daybreak Monday morning. For this week, the upper-jet will pass nearby, with the S tip of an E Canadian trough. Ultimately heights should rebuild starting Saturday. At the lower levels, conditions will be most driven mostly by an area of high pressure tracking from the Northern-Central US through the Northern Mid-Atlantic US between this Tuesday and next Monday. This Monday and Tuesday should be the last days of this current warm and muggy stretch…the warm sector ahead of a convergence-enhanced cold front. Wednesday looks like a day of transition (NWNJ feels the relief first – SENJ feels it last). Logic would suggest at least some frontal precipitation and t-storms along the front/area of convergence, but I’m not seeing a widespread severe outbreak. That would be Wednesday into Thursday morning before the front clears and brings lower temps and dews to all of NJ by Thursday. Thursday through at least Labor Day morning looks mostly dry which is good news for outdoor weekend interests. It looks like a typical 4-day high pressure cycle where New Jersey transitions from warm/pleasant to warm/muggy with temps increasing a few degrees each day. Maybe some isolated pop-ups back for actual Labor Day but that’s still a little far out. The tropics still look active starting in the Sept 3-10 period. Nothing currently threatening NJ so I’m just monitoring the developing favorable pattern for now.
Monday (Aug 29) high temperatures should reach into the low-90s for most areas. Mid-80s along the coast. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds (mainly sun) with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SE, possibly a little breezier for SENJ. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.
Tuesday (Aug 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas. Coastal regions closer to the mid-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Thunderstorms are possible mainly during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S (unless under/near a storm). Overnight lows should range from 65-70 from elevations to coasts.
Wednesday (Aug 31) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity not as bad as Mon-Tues but still noticeably present. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from elevations to coasts.
Thursday (Sept 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with lower humidity. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 50-65 from elevations to coasts.
Friday (Sept 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a warm, but drier feel. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from elevations to coasts.
An early look at Labor Day Weekend indicates high pressure domination. Should be great news for outdoor activities starting Thursday through at least Sunday. Monday still a bit far out. I’ll do a full detailed holiday weekend outlook this Wednesday night. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™