Discussion: For this week, we’ll be under lower geopotential heights. The trough (#1) that moved into place Saturday, eventually bringing the cooler and drier air for Sunday, is slowly departing with another trough (#2) forming and moving in right behind. As the current trough departs, we’re on the back side of it (cooler NW flow). This NW flow comes with a leading disturbance this afternoon/evening that could drop some showers across mainly NNJ. SNJ has the best chance to stay dry. Regardless, the shower activity should decay into tonight and a reinforcement of cooler/drier air will follow. It won’t make it colder than it is now, it will simply extend how it feels now into the week. On Wed-Thurs we’ll see a flattening of the upper flow making it more W than NW. This should allow Wed-Thurs to be the warmest days of the week but still likely mid-80s…upper-80s at most.
Come Friday, trough #2 should interact with the tropical system to be named Ernesto. I mentioned this last week as a tropical signal in the Aug 18-20 period. As of right now, Ernesto looks to miss the E US but maybe impact Bermuda in that time frame. But Ernesto’s interaction with trough #2 and #3 will ultimately determine if rain (not associated with Ernesto) moves into NJ as early as Saturday or as late as Sunday night/Monday. This is still yet TBD and will be determined when there’s a better handle on Ernesto and the two troughs’ interaction. I should have a much better idea come Wednesday. But as of now, Ernesto is looking out to sea for the Aug 18-20 period re: New Jersey. It would be rain from trough #3 only that would be moving in either earlier or later.
Monday (Aug 12) high temperatures are nearing their max (as of 3pm Monday) in the lower-80s. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds with a comfortable level of humidity. Can’t rule out a passing shower, especially for NNJ through evening hours. SNJ more favored to stay dry. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW as overnight lows return to the 55-65 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Another stellar night.
Tuesday (Aug 13) high temperatures should again max near-80 for most NJ locations. Lower-80s away from the ocean. Upper-70s near the ocean. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. The comfortable air mass remains in place. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows once again return to the 55-65 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Three stellar nights in a row.
Wednesday (Aug 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations, perhaps mid-to-upper 80s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a comfortable feel (for being in the 80s). Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Winning nights continue.
Thursday (Aug 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 60-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Might be the last amazing night of this stretch.
Friday (Aug 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. As of now, it appears like a transitional day—starting clear and increasing cloudiness during the day. Also some returning humidity by PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with a few showers around. A stickier night expected.
An early look at the weekend (Aug 17-18) indicates potential unsettled conditions. Temperatures should remain lower like this week (upper-70s/lower-80s). But whether or not some rain and thunderstorms move in before the end of the weekend is yet TBD. I’d say Saturday looks safer than Sunday. But both days appear on the hook for rain/thunderstorms should the system arrive earlier than later. SW flow though, so likely higher humidity no mater what happens. Let’s check back in a few days to see what has evolved. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
Premium Services
KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.
My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™