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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Dec 8: Midweek Snow Likely

Dec 8: Midweek Snow Likely

🕔18:36, 8.Dec 2019

Discussion: Departing high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will help pump and E US warm sector with a Great Lakes-tracking low. That’s going to keep the Mid-Atlantic mild and rainy for Monday-Tuesday with high temperatures pushing 60 at times. On

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Volatile Conditions Detected

Volatile Conditions Detected

🕔18:58, 5.Dec 2019

Discussion: Some flurries and snow showers were moving across NNJ earlier but looks like it calmed down a bit on radar. Should be an uneventful chilly night tonight (Thursday). High pressure should then track near Bermuda tomorrow (Friday) and provide

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Dec 2: Coastal Snow Storm Update

Dec 2: Coastal Snow Storm Update

🕔19:54, 2.Dec 2019

Discussion: We’re about halfway through phase 3. There’s nothing left but the second half of the snow storm that should occur between now and about 2am. We’ve seen a lot of mesoscale banding today. The radar reflects such with a

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Dec 2: Coastal Snow Storm Arriving

Dec 2: Coastal Snow Storm Arriving

🕔08:30, 2.Dec 2019

Discussion: One final snow map tweak heading into phase 3 of this system. When we made our map yesterday afternoon there was little data to support higher snow totals further S and SE in New Jersey. Since then (last night

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Dec 1: Coastal Snow Storm Incoming

Dec 1: Coastal Snow Storm Incoming

🕔16:35, 1.Dec 2019

Discussion: Phase 1 is about complete. The division between wintry and non-wintry precip went about as expected (somewhere near/along I-95). The wintry area verified colder than expected however. Didn’t think I’d see it snowing that hard in Giants Stadium and

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December 2019 Outlook

December 2019 Outlook

🕔12:00, 1.Dec 2019

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how December 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best

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Nov 30: Wintry Storm Approaching

Nov 30: Wintry Storm Approaching

🕔16:29, 30.Nov 2019

Discussion: Let’s break the 3 phases we’ve been discussing into the following timing expectations: Phase 1: Sunday Morning through Sunday afternoon. The warm front will arrive from the SW with precipitation after midnight tonight (Saturday night). I expect precip to

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Nov 29: Coastal Wintry Storm a Go

Nov 29: Coastal Wintry Storm a Go

🕔16:23, 29.Nov 2019

Discussion: I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. It is now time to take the Sunday-Monday coastal storm setup seriously. We are well within the mid-range forecasting period with strong agreement on model guidance, a favorable pattern and matching

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Nov 27: Thanksgiving Forecast

Nov 27: Thanksgiving Forecast

🕔13:56, 27.Nov 2019

Discussion: Let’s first address tonight and Thanksgiving (tomorrow). A fairly organized low pressure system will tracking to our N (from W to E). It looks like it makes a run from the Great Lakes over N New York State and

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Nov 26: Coastal Winter Storm Becoming Likely

Nov 26: Coastal Winter Storm Becoming Likely

🕔16:37, 26.Nov 2019

Discussion: I want to real quick talk about the Thanksgiving period. Right now we’re in the developing warm sector ahead of the lakes-tracking disturbance that should bring nuisance rain only between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The bigger story with

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