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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

🕔18:00, 6.Feb 2020

Discussion: The next and more significant precipitation slug moves through between tonight and about 6am tomorrow morning. SENJ should receive more rainfall than NWNJ but everyone’s on the hook for widespread periods of moderate, sometimes heavy, rain overnight tonight. Precipitation

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Feb 5: NNJ Ice Storm Update

Feb 5: NNJ Ice Storm Update

🕔16:18, 5.Feb 2020

Discussion: It’s been a somewhat colder day than the past few. The boundary has been pulled southward over NNJ from the back-side cyclonic flow of the weak wave that just departed. NNJ is already down into the 30s and some

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Feb 4: Ice Storm Impact Maps

Feb 4: Ice Storm Impact Maps

🕔16:04, 4.Feb 2020

Discussion: There’s no need to cover the overall global polar and Pacific patterns that are producing an unfavorable environment for winter storm development. Now it’s all about the thread-the-needle wintry events that can still occur in an unfavorable winter pattern.

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February 2020 Outlook

February 2020 Outlook

🕔12:07, 4.Feb 2020

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of February 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex

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Feb 3: Ice Storm Detected for NNJ

Feb 3: Ice Storm Detected for NNJ

🕔16:40, 3.Feb 2020

Discussion: While the overall Polar and Pacific weather patterns, including key teleconnections and oscillations, remain generally unfavorable for winter weather in New Jersey, we do have a few thread the needle events to watch this week. We’re basically going to

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Mild and Wet for Most (Feb 3-7)

Mild and Wet for Most (Feb 3-7)

🕔17:55, 2.Feb 2020

Discussion: In the upper-levels, anomalous ridging should dominate the pattern for the next 10 days. In some cases the ridging retrogrades W enough to pull some troughing down from SE Canada over our area. At the surface this means a

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Super Bowl Weekend Outlook (Jan 31-Feb 2)

Super Bowl Weekend Outlook (Jan 31-Feb 2)

🕔15:36, 30.Jan 2020

Discussion: It’s time to kill the weekend possibility of a larger snow storm. It was dead after last night’s model guidance, but I wanted to compare today’s 12z model suite to live observations to be sure. It was a strong

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Jan 29: Still Watching the Weekend

Jan 29: Still Watching the Weekend

🕔16:32, 29.Jan 2020

Discussion: I really wanted to have some sort of closure on whether or not the weekend system is a go or not. I thought for sure the flight recon and proper land sampling would push the needle one way or

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Jan 27: Still Watching the Weekend Storm

Jan 27: Still Watching the Weekend Storm

🕔19:42, 27.Jan 2020

Discussion: We’re likely beyond the point of if there’s going to be a synoptic storm off the east coast this weekend. The signal has been well-advertised on long-range model guidance with consistency. A Miller-A low should form in the Gulf

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Watching the Weekend (Jan 27-31)

Watching the Weekend (Jan 27-31)

🕔15:17, 26.Jan 2020

Discussion: Most are focused on this weekend’s winter storm potential. Let’s get the week ahead out of the way first. Upper-level height anomalies should remain negative through most of this week. This indicates colder air aloft with general flow out

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