Discussion: A pattern change is still expected to begin with a stormy Monday (Nov 30). The upper levels will be very meridional with lower height anomalies dominating as far out as I can comfortably see (out to about Dec 10).
Discussion: Nothing crazy expected for this weekend. A weak area of high pressure will float through under slightly negative height anomalies. After a very mild Thanksgiving Day and Friday, this will produce a colder Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks colder
Discussion: Some pretty wild atmospheric dynamics are showing up on model guidance for next week as we leave November and enter meteorological winter. Let’s talk a little about the teleconnection oscillations first, specifically the three which impact the E US
Discussion: A meridional but progressive upper jet pattern is expected this week. Height anomalies indicate back-and-forth positive and negative as thin and quick moving troughs and ridges try to establish with a cut-off upper level low or two. At the
Discussion: A zonal upper jet and positive geopotential height anomalies should dominate the weekend. At the surface that means mild temperatures without disturbance. Friday and Saturday looks the mildest as flow starts out of the S/SW and rocks to W/NW.
Discussion: Sunday night’s cold front was on the front of the trough that we (and most of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US) are now underneath. This means low geopotential heights and a condensed cooler lower atmosphere. Today, an upper level disturbance moved
Discussion: The upper jet will be dipping S of NJ from tonight through about Thursday morning. This will allow below average 500mb geopotential height anomalies to build over NJ in said period. At the surface this means a much colder
Discussion: When I was younger, before I studied the science of meteorology, I would falsely associate prolonged wind events in the months of spring and fall. I thought these events, for said periods, were the seasons blowing in and out.
Discussion: Current rain is associated with an unorganized area of frontal precipitation stemming ultimately from Tropical Storm Eta departing the coastal SE US area. This should all move out by noon, at the latest, on Friday with high pressure establishing
Discussion: A strong E US ridge should continue to dominate the pattern through Wednesday morning. This obviously keeps the 250mb jet to the N of NJ with warm/mild high pressure-driven surface conditions beneath. The high pressure that brought us beautiful
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