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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…

Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…

🕔14:42, 11.Dec 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will make several meridional fluctuations over the next few weeks over NJ. This should allow a few low pressure systems to pass just to the SE of NJ from W to E—putting parts of NJ on

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Dec 10: Winter is Coming

Dec 10: Winter is Coming

🕔14:56, 10.Dec 2020

Discussion: I wanted to provide a longer-range outlook today after seeing a few things. The modeled teleconnections, on the Euro Ensembles, are indicating a much stronger -AO/-NAO pattern setting in. The values take a noticeable dive in the Dec 15-18

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Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ

Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ

🕔15:10, 8.Dec 2020

Discussion: We’re now under the NW flow that occurs in the upper levels on the back of a trough. A very weak upper-level disturbance, and associated surface low in Canada, is going to send a piece of the energy from

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Cold and Dry (Dec 7-11)

Cold and Dry (Dec 7-11)

🕔14:46, 6.Dec 2020

Discussion: Much of the state will drop below freezing tonight (Sunday night). The early weekend storm system for NJ went on to bring snow in parts of New England as a decent mid-latitude cyclone. The backside cyclonic flow of that

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Cold Conditions (Dec 4-6)

Cold Conditions (Dec 4-6)

🕔14:59, 4.Dec 2020

Discussion: Model guidance indicates a very meridional jet pattern over the next few weeks with ample below-average geopotential height anomalies. At the surface this means colder temperatures and an active pattern. Whether or not one of these systems times with

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Dec 3: Coastal Storm Approaching

Dec 3: Coastal Storm Approaching

🕔23:32, 3.Dec 2020

Discussion: In yesterday’s article we discussed how an Upper Level Low (ULL) in the interior SW US was handing a piece of energy off to the ULL over SE Canada/NE US. This expected transformation of cyclonic energy has not changed.

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Dec 2: Rain to Possible Snow Detected

Dec 2: Rain to Possible Snow Detected Updated

🕔16:30, 2.Dec 2020

Discussion: The upper level low/trough that brought Monday’s storm and the current colder conditions is currently lingering over SE Canada and the NE US. There is also an upper level low in the interior SW US trapped under strong W

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Nov 30: Tornado Watch Discussion

Nov 30: Tornado Watch Discussion

🕔13:36, 30.Nov 2020

Discussion: The heaviest precipitation slug has passed through New Jersey from S/SW to N/NE. Some of those downpours were intense. I know because I was in one. Remaining precipitation today will be of an isolated-to-scattered nature, no longer widespread. We

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Nov 29: Rain and Wind Approaching

Nov 29: Rain and Wind Approaching

🕔21:39, 29.Nov 2020

Discussion: Two upper level disturbances, from separate N and S jet streams, are combining into a single energy vort to our W in the central US. I still see this as a pattern changer. The first of many surface lows

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Stormy Start (Nov 30-Dec 4)

Stormy Start (Nov 30-Dec 4)

🕔14:09, 29.Nov 2020

Discussion: A pattern change is still expected to begin with a stormy Monday (Nov 30). The upper levels will be very meridional with lower height anomalies dominating as far out as I can comfortably see (out to about Dec 10).

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