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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Cold Behind the Storm (Dec 18-20)

Cold Behind the Storm (Dec 18-20)

🕔15:26, 17.Dec 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will stay to the S of NJ from now until Saturday evening. This is because the departing mid-latitude cyclone and approaching high to our SW are pulling colder air downwards from our N. The jet should

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Dec 17: Coastal Winter Storm Update

Dec 17: Coastal Winter Storm Update

🕔00:30, 17.Dec 2020

Discussion: The coastal storm low is currently just off the tip of Cape May. Here’s the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data: The low should track just offshore of Atlantic City, NJ by ~3am and then gradually pull away to the E

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Dec 16: Coastal Winter Storm Begins

Dec 16: Coastal Winter Storm Begins

🕔11:27, 16.Dec 2020

Discussion: Some radar returns are starting to show up to the SW of NJ which means precipitation, whether wintry or rain, should begin falling by early afternoon today. This is going to be the last predictive forecast article for this

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Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!

Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!

🕔16:28, 15.Dec 2020

Discussion: As I said before, this system is going to break a lot of snow lover hearts in SNJ (I’m one of them) while delivering a crippling winter blow to NNJ. A NNJ KABOOM. The trends in model guidance that

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Dec 14: Winter Storm Developing

Dec 14: Winter Storm Developing

🕔16:26, 14.Dec 2020

Discussion: Today’s weaker event is now ending and we can focus exclusively on the higher-impacts of the Wednesday-Thursday system. Not much has changed in the model guidance. We have a surface low tracking in over the coastal Carolinas and wanting

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Dec 13: Winter Storm a GO

Dec 13: Winter Storm a GO

🕔16:36, 13.Dec 2020

Discussion: Just to recap a little, we’re in a -AO/-NAO/neutral PNA teleconnection pattern. The PV is moving into central-east Canada. The jet is behaving in more of a meridional manner over the US and therefore shortwave disturbances are being moved

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Dec 12: Snow Event(s) Detected

Dec 12: Snow Event(s) Detected

🕔16:29, 12.Dec 2020

Discussion: This discussion is for two separate disturbances expected to occur this coming week. The first is on Monday (Dec 14) and the second Wednesday into Thursday (Dec 16-17). For the first event on Monday, we have a trough anchored

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Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…

Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…

🕔14:42, 11.Dec 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will make several meridional fluctuations over the next few weeks over NJ. This should allow a few low pressure systems to pass just to the SE of NJ from W to E—putting parts of NJ on

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Dec 10: Winter is Coming

Dec 10: Winter is Coming

🕔14:56, 10.Dec 2020

Discussion: I wanted to provide a longer-range outlook today after seeing a few things. The modeled teleconnections, on the Euro Ensembles, are indicating a much stronger -AO/-NAO pattern setting in. The values take a noticeable dive in the Dec 15-18

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Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ

Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ

🕔15:10, 8.Dec 2020

Discussion: We’re now under the NW flow that occurs in the upper levels on the back of a trough. A very weak upper-level disturbance, and associated surface low in Canada, is going to send a piece of the energy from

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