Discussion: This morning’s 6Z NAM run was about as close as the Jan 8-9 (tomorrow-Saturday) storm signal has been modeled over the past few days (see below image). The more recent 12Z model suite has re-affirmed a miss to the
Discussion: We have two immediate synoptic signals to track. One is for this Friday-Saturday (Jan 8-9) and the other is for next Tuesday (Jan 12). There’s another Jan 15 but let’s deal with the first two that are now inside
Discussion: We’re just about through the lull after this morning’s precip burst. The upper-level shortwave will now interact with the surface low off the coast and fill back in precipitation. You can already see it happening in EPA. The final
Discussion: After today’s milder conditions, all NJ temperatures should crash overnight tonight. We’re probably looking at a range of 20s to 30s from elevations to sea come 5-6am Sunday morning. The back-side of the departing low’s northerly cyclonic flow will
Discussion: Precip should slowly clear from W to E this evening. It’s possible some snow/sleet mixes in but nothing crazy. The S side of passing high pressure should then improve conditions overnight into Friday morning. Clouds and rain should then
Discussion: Today (Monday) should remain relatively mild and unsettled with conditions improving/temperatures dropping this evening/overnight. A large area of high pressure should then dominate the entire E US for Tuesday and Wednesday with colder temperatures and clear skies. Thursday and
Discussion: A pretty solid wind event for much of NJ last night. There were a few spots in NNJ/CNJ who never gusted above the 30-40mph range. But most other places saw 40-60mph, some higher. SWNJ was gusting to 70mph before
Discussion: Nothing has changed since Tuesday’s article regarding the physics of tonight. We have a deep trough swinging negative with a raging 250mb S jet passing over NJ. To our W, we’re expecting closed-off lows in the mid-to-upper levels (700-500mb)
Discussion: If Christmas is going to experience any kind of weather, please, for goodness sake, let it snow. Not a wind event! Are you serious Clark? </rant> A strong mid-latitude cyclone will track to the NW of NJ up into
Discussion: A very meridional upper jet pattern with a lot of below-average geopotential height anomaly periods is expected through the rest of this year and into January. The AO and NAO teleconnections continue to model negative for this period. This
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