Discussion: Nothing has changed since Tuesday’s article regarding the physics of tonight. We have a deep trough swinging negative with a raging 250mb S jet passing over NJ. To our W, we’re expecting closed-off lows in the mid-to-upper levels (700-500mb)
Discussion: If Christmas is going to experience any kind of weather, please, for goodness sake, let it snow. Not a wind event! Are you serious Clark? </rant> A strong mid-latitude cyclone will track to the NW of NJ up into
Discussion: A very meridional upper jet pattern with a lot of below-average geopotential height anomaly periods is expected through the rest of this year and into January. The AO and NAO teleconnections continue to model negative for this period. This
Discussion: The upper jet will stay to the S of NJ from now until Saturday evening. This is because the departing mid-latitude cyclone and approaching high to our SW are pulling colder air downwards from our N. The jet should
Discussion: The coastal storm low is currently just off the tip of Cape May. Here’s the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data: The low should track just offshore of Atlantic City, NJ by ~3am and then gradually pull away to the E
Discussion: Some radar returns are starting to show up to the SW of NJ which means precipitation, whether wintry or rain, should begin falling by early afternoon today. This is going to be the last predictive forecast article for this
Discussion: As I said before, this system is going to break a lot of snow lover hearts in SNJ (I’m one of them) while delivering a crippling winter blow to NNJ. A NNJ KABOOM. The trends in model guidance that
Discussion: Today’s weaker event is now ending and we can focus exclusively on the higher-impacts of the Wednesday-Thursday system. Not much has changed in the model guidance. We have a surface low tracking in over the coastal Carolinas and wanting
Discussion: Just to recap a little, we’re in a -AO/-NAO/neutral PNA teleconnection pattern. The PV is moving into central-east Canada. The jet is behaving in more of a meridional manner over the US and therefore shortwave disturbances are being moved
Discussion: This discussion is for two separate disturbances expected to occur this coming week. The first is on Monday (Dec 14) and the second Wednesday into Thursday (Dec 16-17). For the first event on Monday, we have a trough anchored
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