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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Jan 28: Winter Storm Chances Increasing

Jan 28: Winter Storm Chances Increasing

🕔23:06, 28.Jan 2021

Discussion: The coastal storm that missed us to the S (bringing a swath of snow through parts of NC/VA) has departed well into the Atlantic Ocean. The backside of this cyclonic flow has pulled down more cold from the available

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Jan 26: Active Pattern Continues

Jan 26: Active Pattern Continues

🕔15:16, 26.Jan 2021

Discussion: The weak wave has just about passed. Just another small batch of light precip is expected to move through NNJ later tonight and taper off by early Wednesday AM hours. The primary low involved in the generally weak transfer

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Jan 25: Light Wintry Event Approaching

Jan 25: Light Wintry Event Approaching

🕔15:21, 25.Jan 2021

Discussion: Precipitation just ahead of a warm front (currently over KY/WV/VA) is moving in from our SW. It should first move into SWNJ anytime after sundown tonight as snow and then try to spread into SENJ and maybe even CNJ

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Jan 24: Snow Update

Jan 24: Snow Update

🕔14:59, 24.Jan 2021

Discussion: This map and discussion might seem unnecessary for a minor snow event. But there will be multiple forms of wintry precipitation capable of impacting travel and safety this Monday night through most of Tuesday. With that said, let’s focus

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Jan 23: Tracking Two Wintry Systems

Jan 23: Tracking Two Wintry Systems

🕔15:11, 23.Jan 2021

Discussion: We currently have high pressure (anti-cyclonic flow) to our W and low pressure (cyclonic flow) to our E. This is producing a tight N to S pressure gradient (strong N/NW flow) and tapping Arctic air mass over Canada. For

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Jan 22: Winter Storm Detected

Jan 22: Winter Storm Detected

🕔15:27, 22.Jan 2021

Discussion: A shot of Arctic air will move in from the NW starting tonight and will linger until Sunday. This should keep most, if not all, of NJ below freezing during this period. NNJ elevations and maybe Pine Barrens down

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Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

🕔14:53, 17.Jan 2021

Discussion: Tonight should start a prolonged colder pattern for NJ. Nothing record breaking, just colder. It should already feel colder today than the warm sector air mass we saw earlier this weekend. This week should behave like a V graph

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Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

🕔15:18, 14.Jan 2021

Discussion: The most important feature of our current forecast is the disrupted Pacific jet plowing into the W US. We’re going to see a -EPO/-PNA setup start to take shape. This will allow ridging to occur near Alaska and extreme

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Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

🕔11:53, 11.Jan 2021

Discussion: The Tuesday-Wednesday storm signal has vanished to the S just like the signal last Friday. Strong consensus in the 5-8 day range. Fell apart at 5 day and in mark. Seems to be the theme which indicates the models

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Cold and Clear (Jan 9-10)

Cold and Clear (Jan 9-10)

🕔01:01, 9.Jan 2021

Discussion: So that everyone is on the same page, an extremely favorable pattern supportive of winter storm development can come and go without any snowstorms actually hitting NJ. These lyrics probably belong in an Alanis Morissette song or something, but

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