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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

🕔11:20, 26.Feb 2021

Discussion: An area of high pressure is moving through from W to E. It brought us a cold Thursday night but will now moderate temperatures with it’s departing return flow. The ocean is running 38-39F but the sun should take

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Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ

Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ

🕔15:20, 21.Feb 2021

Discussion: Tonight should be another cold one. Nothing crazy record breaking but lows dropping below freezing statewide (into 20s for much of NJ). The high pressure, that drove down the decaying Arctic air mass over NJ this weekend, will pass

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Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)

Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)

🕔14:56, 19.Feb 2021

Discussion: It just occurred to me that I haven’t released a fixed weekly product (Mon-Fri Outlook or Weekend Outlook) since late-January. February’s weather, so far, warranted daily wintry storm articles for the incredibly active winter pattern we’ve been in since

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Feb 17: Winter Storm Update

Feb 17: Winter Storm Update

🕔16:30, 17.Feb 2021

Discussion: The approaching winter storm is anything but a “start and end as snow” event. It’s an ugly mess of precipitation types including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain falling on a volatile surface line of freezing. The low

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Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching

Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching

🕔16:30, 16.Feb 2021

Discussion: The trend on most data over the last 24 hours has been for a colder solution Thursday-Friday. More like the solution I was thinking yesterday (what the GFS/Euro was advertising). The reason for the data changing is that the

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Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update

Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update

🕔14:46, 15.Feb 2021

Discussion: Precipitation so far today has been very isolated and drizzly with most areas still dry as of now. Ultra-short-range model guidance and live obs indicate similar conditions holding until about 11PM tonight. From 11PM into Tuesday morning, precipitation should

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Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching

Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching Updated

🕔15:30, 14.Feb 2021

Discussion: Another ice storm is approaching and this one looks more potent. Where the recent one hit mostly 95 and SE, this one is targeting 95 and NW. There’s not much to say. The atmosphere is warm over New Jersey

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Feb 12: Ice Storm Approaching

Feb 12: Ice Storm Approaching

🕔15:25, 12.Feb 2021

Discussion: A very strung-out wave of energy, focused on a weak and unorganized area of low pressure, will impact NJ with precipitation between Saturday morning and noon on Sunday. The weak low will eject into the Atlantic Ocean near OBX

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Feb 11: Ice Storm(s) Detected

Feb 11: Ice Storm(s) Detected

🕔14:42, 11.Feb 2021

Discussion: The South Jersey Express is through. Looks like it left 1-3 across CNJ and some parts of NNJ and 3-6 across SNJ. It fell overnight and fluffy out of the colder air aloft but compacted into a wetter accumulation

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Feb 10: Winter Storm Approaching

Feb 10: Winter Storm Approaching

🕔12:23, 10.Feb 2021

Discussion: Most model guidance, that specializes in short-range solutions, like the RGEM/NAM/etc. have suggested a slightly more amplified shortwave and a little less suppression influence from the polar vortex energy just to our N. This means that the precipitation shield

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