Discussion: A very strung-out wave of energy, focused on a weak and unorganized area of low pressure, will impact NJ with precipitation between Saturday morning and noon on Sunday. The weak low will eject into the Atlantic Ocean near OBX
Discussion: The South Jersey Express is through. Looks like it left 1-3 across CNJ and some parts of NNJ and 3-6 across SNJ. It fell overnight and fluffy out of the colder air aloft but compacted into a wetter accumulation
Discussion: Most model guidance, that specializes in short-range solutions, like the RGEM/NAM/etc. have suggested a slightly more amplified shortwave and a little less suppression influence from the polar vortex energy just to our N. This means that the precipitation shield
Discussion: The light North Jersey Grazer event concluded earlier today. Overall, not a big deal especially after last week’s snowfall. As expected, the extreme NNJ elevations did best with amounts gradually tapering off near I-80/I-70 as you move from extreme
Discussion: There are seriously 5-6 winter storm signals over the next 12 days or so. Most appear to be light-to-significant with maybe a significant-to-major around Valentines Day. Let’s focus on the two immediate signals this week. Gonna have to start
Storm Recap: Radiational cooling allowed last night’s low temperatures to dip below freezing across parts of SENJ. This seemed a little surprising but ended up not mattering. The low’s position and track provided warmer flow that rocked counterclockwise from S
Discussion: The general trends since yesterday have been a slightly more expansive jackpot region to the NW (still misses NWNJ directly) which brings a little more mixing/rain concerns for SENJ to start the event. The snow is looking very wet
Discussion: The upper pattern data is gaining confidence in the N branch digging and hanging back a little, allowing the S branch to catch up and take the upper-level trough axis to near-neutral. East coast heights respond higher and take
Discussion: Real quick, we still expect a weak disturbance moving through Friday. It seems nuisance at this point with only trace/light accumulations for NWNJ elevations. Maybe non-accumulating snow as far SE as 95. It will be out of here by
Discussion: I think it is best to address the January 31-February 3, 2021 winter storm by the phases they were laid out in our initial Jan 30 forecast article: Phase I: The Onset We had a very cold air mass
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