Milder Conditions (March 8-12)
Discussion: Monday looks like a day of transition as the colder air mass departs to our NE. N/NW flow will slowly give way to W/NW and ultimately W/SW flow by early Tuesday. This will allow warmer air from the SE
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
Clear but Cold (March 5-7)
Discussion: The backside of a trough over the NE US will feed our area with colder NW flow at the upper levels from now (Thursday) through most of the weekend until a narrow positive-axis trough swings through between Sunday and
Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)
Discussion: We should stay cold and rainy tonight into tomorrow morning as our weak but prolonged disturbance moves through. Tomorrow (Monday) winds should pick up out of the W/NW after late-AM clearing and persist into some of Tuesday. Peak wind
Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)
Discussion: An area of high pressure is moving through from W to E. It brought us a cold Thursday night but will now moderate temperatures with it’s departing return flow. The ocean is running 38-39F but the sun should take
Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ
Discussion: Tonight should be another cold one. Nothing crazy record breaking but lows dropping below freezing statewide (into 20s for much of NJ). The high pressure, that drove down the decaying Arctic air mass over NJ this weekend, will pass
Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)
Discussion: It just occurred to me that I haven’t released a fixed weekly product (Mon-Fri Outlook or Weekend Outlook) since late-January. February’s weather, so far, warranted daily wintry storm articles for the incredibly active winter pattern we’ve been in since
Feb 17: Winter Storm Update
Discussion: The approaching winter storm is anything but a “start and end as snow” event. It’s an ugly mess of precipitation types including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain falling on a volatile surface line of freezing. The low
Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching
Discussion: The trend on most data over the last 24 hours has been for a colder solution Thursday-Friday. More like the solution I was thinking yesterday (what the GFS/Euro was advertising). The reason for the data changing is that the
Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update
Discussion: Precipitation so far today has been very isolated and drizzly with most areas still dry as of now. Ultra-short-range model guidance and live obs indicate similar conditions holding until about 11PM tonight. From 11PM into Tuesday morning, precipitation should
Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching
Discussion: Another ice storm is approaching and this one looks more potent. Where the recent one hit mostly 95 and SE, this one is targeting 95 and NW. There’s not much to say. The atmosphere is warm over New Jersey
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