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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)

Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)

🕔00:06, 19.Apr 2021

Discussion: The upper level pattern of repeating positive-axis troughs, swinging from central Canada through the E US, will continue this week. Tuesday looks like the mildest day of the week from SW flow culmination ahead of the cold front. Wednesday

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Conditions Improve (April 16-18)

Conditions Improve (April 16-18)

🕔15:40, 16.Apr 2021

Discussion: Lower 500mb heights should continue to dominate the pattern with trough after trough swinging down and in from central Canada through the US. Because the troughs feature a positive axis, nothing big can really spin up. It does however

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Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

🕔15:36, 11.Apr 2021

Discussion: The upper levels this week have a very unsettled look. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should alternate between near-average to below-average. This means a lower general atmosphere (cooler aloft) which allows milder rising air and moisture (from higher-angle diurnal surface

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Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)

Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)

🕔23:29, 4.Apr 2021

Discussion: Not a lot going on this week. Monday through Thursday fall under the front side of a ridge. This should allow most locations to near-70 during the day and stay above 40 at night. Friday then looks a little

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Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)

Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)

🕔00:30, 2.Apr 2021

Discussion: High pressure to our W (over S IL/W KY) is currently producing cold NE quadrant anti-cyclonic flow over NJ. This is tapping colder Canadian air mass and giving us some wind to make it feel even colder in the

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A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

🕔22:23, 28.Mar 2021

Discussion: The upper-jet looks very wavy and meridional over the next week or so. The lows are obviously not dipping as far S anymore as our p-types have been mostly rain and driven by cold frontal passages to the S

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Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)

Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)

🕔14:01, 26.Mar 2021

Discussion: Most of our pattern, this weekend into next week, will be heavily influenced by a few low pressure systems passing to our far NW. There’s one right now dragging a mostly-dry cold front through. Today, we’re experiencing the warm

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Spring is Here (March 22-26)

Spring is Here (March 22-26)

🕔00:54, 22.Mar 2021

Discussion: Nothing serious or hazardous expected for this week. The most noteworthy mention IMO are the sustained milder temperatures. Most of NJ should have no problem reaching 60 this week almost every day and in some cases 70 away from

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Clear and Cool but Nice (March 19-21)

Clear and Cool but Nice (March 19-21)

🕔23:09, 18.Mar 2021

Discussion: Precipitation should end shortly after midnight tonight (Thursday night). SNJ is finishing strong now with heavy downpours, increased winds, and possibly an isolated boomer or two. Upper-level ridging will then build over the NorthEast/Mid-Atlantic US through Monday with a

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Unsettled Conditions (March 15-19)

Unsettled Conditions (March 15-19)

🕔00:12, 15.Mar 2021

Discussion: High pressure just N of the Great Lakes is flow-teaming with low pressure in the NW Atlantic. Tight isobars between are currently (as of late-Sunday night) producing cold and gusty conditions to end the weekend and start Monday morning.

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