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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Tomorrow Looks Stormy

Tomorrow Looks Stormy

🕔14:20, 28.Jul 2021

Discussion: Outside of a few possible isolated pop-ups (along sea breeze, etc.), we should remain mostly dry today. Temps are maxing in the low-to-mid 80s. Humidity is a little stickier in SENJ than NWNJ but overall manageable. We should also

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Mixed Conditions

Mixed Conditions

🕔11:41, 26.Jul 2021

Discussion: The 250mb upper jet is going to be over NJ for the next week or so as it rounds the top of the W US ridging and forces lower geopotential heights for the E US. This should nose a

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Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

🕔09:38, 23.Jul 2021

Discussion: The bottom of a very positive axis trough is currently overhead and will dominate much of the Friday-Saturday pattern with NW flow aloft. Upper-level flow will return to more of a W/NW direction once geopotential heights relax after the

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Relief!

Relief!

🕔13:27, 19.Jul 2021

Discussion: This week we’ll see average to just below-average geopotential heights. The stubborn W US ridge will really flex this week forcing troughing in the E US. Therefore, we’re cooler and drier this week in the E US but still

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Hot and Unsettled

Hot and Unsettled

🕔12:31, 15.Jul 2021

Discussion: Higher geopotential heights with an upper-jet to our N (thanks to the Bermuda high return flow) should control the pattern to start this weekend. At the surface, NJ will be warm-sectored Friday and Saturday. This means relentless humidity and

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A Triple H Week

A Triple H Week

🕔10:41, 12.Jul 2021

Discussion:  The upper-jet will stay well to the N of NJ this week, as it commonly does with summertime ridging pumped by a Bermuda high. We’ve been stuck in a W US ridge pattern however the Bermuda high has been

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Conditions Improve. Humidity Lingers.

Conditions Improve. Humidity Lingers.

🕔11:38, 9.Jul 2021

Discussion: Elsa moved through about as expected. Overall? A widespread run-of-mill overnight rain and wind event that we’ve seen many times before. Some SENJ locations finished with close to three inches of rain while areas like NWNJ failed to reach

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Into the Unknown

Into the Unknown

🕔11:43, 8.Jul 2021

Discussion: Elsa is barely hanging onto tropical storm criteria with maximum sustained winds at 40mph with gusts to 45mph. She’s currently near the east-central border of NC/SC with rain bands extended as far N as Virginia (approaching S tip of

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Rain and Wind Never Bothered me Anyway.

Rain and Wind Never Bothered me Anyway.

🕔12:25, 7.Jul 2021

Discussion: Remnants of a once Hurricane Elsa will take a pass at New Jersey this Thursday night into Friday morning. Else originally entered the W Caribbean/Lesser Antilles, crossed some of the Caribbean Sea and tucked up into SW Florida. It’s

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There’s a Chance

There’s a Chance

🕔16:01, 30.Jun 2021

Discussion: A rather impressive upper jet should push over NJ early this weekend. This should come along the front-side of a positive axis trough that’s swinging down into our region from the N. This trough then slowly becomes neutral while

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