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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Southern NJ Digs Out. Watching Friday.

Southern NJ Digs Out. Watching Friday.

🕔22:08, 3.Jan 2022

Discussion: As today’s SNJ system departs further into the Atlantic Ocean, another system is moving onshore in the NW US off the Pacific. Over the next 3 days, this energy should travel across the US and pick up energy from

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Winter Storm Approaching Southern and Central New Jersey

Winter Storm Approaching Southern and Central New Jersey Updated

🕔14:40, 2.Jan 2022

Discussion: To review, our mild and rainy period is coming to an end today/tonight. The low-pressure series that brought us our rain these last few days is pulling away and will drop temperatures overnight tonight with back-side cyclonic flow out

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Monday SNJ Snow Chances Increasing

Monday SNJ Snow Chances Increasing

🕔21:59, 1.Jan 2022

Discussion: I wanted to wait until the 00Z NAM run tonight (just ran) before putting out today’s article. And I’m glad I did. The GFS has always led the way with this system as the most aggressive (snowiest outcome) model.

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Monday Snow Update

Monday Snow Update

🕔14:24, 31.Dec 2021

Discussion: As far as this weekend goes, we still look mild and rainy in New Jersey…tonight (Friday night – New Years Eve) through Sunday night. For Saturday and Sunday, afternoon temps should range from lower-50s to upper-50s from NWNJ elevations

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Still Watching Monday for Snow

Still Watching Monday for Snow

🕔20:52, 30.Dec 2021

Discussion: The chances for snow in New Jersey on Monday continue to increase. I’ve been interested in this synoptic signal for some time now, specifically the modeled teleconnections (NAO, AO, and PNA). The NAO and AO are modeled to sharply

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Mild/Wet Rest of the Week. Watching Monday.

Mild/Wet Rest of the Week. Watching Monday.

🕔15:16, 28.Dec 2021

Discussion: Conditions should remain mundane (for December) through this weekend. Above-average temperatures and wet at times. 250mb jet analysis indicates a very zonal patten across the US meaning flat and lateral. This allows some weak surface lows to track W

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A Mild, Possibly Wet, Christmas

A Mild, Possibly Wet, Christmas

🕔15:05, 23.Dec 2021

Discussion: A zonal upper-level pattern should fluctuate N and S of NJ over the next week or so as heights respond appropriately with transient troughs and ridges. At the surface this means the volatile conditions should continue. A few days

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Good for Travel

Good for Travel

🕔11:56, 20.Dec 2021

Discussion: This week we’ll have fairly quiet conditions which is good news for travel-related interests (through Friday at least) but not so great for those looking for a White Christmas. Today we’re still cold in the wake of the weekend

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Unsettled Conditions

Unsettled Conditions

🕔16:24, 16.Dec 2021

Discussion: Temperatures soared into the 60s today (Thursday) as expected in the warm sector (after yesterday’s warm front). A cold front will push through tonight, but it looks mostly dry. Also, we’re not talking any serious drops in temperatures just

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Mild Conditions Continue

Mild Conditions Continue

🕔21:35, 12.Dec 2021

Discussion: It’s not exactly go to the beach weather but temperatures are indeed running above average. Since it’s December, that’s still kind of cold but nowhere near what’s needed to support snow. High pressure under a developing, highly anomalous upper-level

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