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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Light Snow Event Developing

Light Snow Event Developing

🕔15:27, 11.Feb 2022

Discussion: This system has been beaten to death for almost 7 days now. While appearing much stronger at times on long-range model guidance, it remains modeled very weak and light over the past few days. The cyclonic vorticity never evolved

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Sunday Snow Targeting SENJ

Sunday Snow Targeting SENJ

🕔15:31, 10.Feb 2022

Discussion: We can’t write this late-weekend system off because it’s still bringing at least light snow to much of the state on most model guidance. The image above is a 6-hour shot of precip representing the furthest NW the system

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Another Winter Storm Possible

Another Winter Storm Possible

🕔15:26, 9.Feb 2022

Discussion: Model data has been persistent on a ~Valentine’s Day winter storm signal since this past Saturday, Feb 5. The signal has ghosted in and out of day 5-9 long-range model guidance but here we are today 4 days out

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A Break from the Arctic

A Break from the Arctic

🕔15:01, 7.Feb 2022

Discussion: After the cold we’ve gotten used to over the 4-5 weeks, this week should feel like beach weather. Especially Friday-Saturday. We first have a weak coastal disturbance passing by today (Monday) through tomorrow (Tuesday). This should bring a cold

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Cold Dry Air Returns

Cold Dry Air Returns

🕔11:53, 4.Feb 2022

Discussion: A shallow trough will push all of today’s (Friday) rain-ending-wintry from NW to SE stuff out and set up a colder and much drier weekend. Mostly positive geopotential heights then move in for next week until the next likely

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Ice Event Detected for Northern New Jersey

Ice Event Detected for Northern New Jersey Updated

🕔16:40, 2.Feb 2022

Discussion: High pressure is now off to our E/SE in the Atlantic Ocean providing warm and moist S/SW return flow for NJ. Many of you dealt with fog/freezing fog this morning since saturation occurred prior to surface temps warming above

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Icing Possible Friday

Icing Possible Friday

🕔15:58, 1.Feb 2022

Discussion: High pressure is currently offshore and will drop southward towards Bermuda by tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. This will set up a milder return flow from the Atlantic Ocean into the S and SW of NJ. This will be the mechanism

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Mixed Conditions

Mixed Conditions

🕔15:10, 30.Jan 2022

Discussion: It will take most of Monday for the deep cold E US trough to transition away but then ridging is expected to build and linger Tuesday through Friday morning. At the surface we have high pressure moving over the

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Major Winter Storm Hits New Jersey

Major Winter Storm Hits New Jersey

🕔14:43, 29.Jan 2022

Discussion: A major winter storm hit New Jersey yesterday and today (January 28-29, 2022). While it was only a light-to-significant event for some NJ areas, it absolutely KABOOMED ECNJ/SENJ with a widespread 12-18 inch snowfall. It started with a few

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Major Winter Storm Approaching New Jersey

Major Winter Storm Approaching New Jersey

🕔16:40, 28.Jan 2022

Discussion: A major winter storm is knocking on New Jersey’s door. Some lighter stuff has already fallen today and it looks like things are going to kick off in SWNJ/SNJ very soon. Let’s break the final forecast discussion (before live

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