Two Light Snow Chances
Discussion: The upper jet (analyzed at 250mb) remains to the S of NJ as we freeze inside of a trough. The polar and pacific jets will be coupling by Wednesday which will help drive the expected clipper system Wednesday night
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
Snow/Rain and then COLD!
Discussion: Another round of beneficial rainfall is approaching New Jersey for Thanksgiving Day. Areas N of I-80/NW of I-287, mainly Sussex and N Warren Counties are subject to more snowfall but nowhere near the accumulations that fell and stuck last
Wintry Air Mass Detected
Discussion: The upper-jet is expected to dip to the S of NJ once the Tuesday system is through. There it will stay until well into December. Height, analyzed at 500mb, suggests a period of troughing beginning this weekend that should
On Winter’s Doorstep
Discussion: Last night into this morning was a solid kick-off for snow season. I know that only NWNJ elevations (especially Sparta through Vernon) saw snow accumulations with the majority of NJ (lower 2/3) just seeing rain with a few flurries/snow
Snow and Rain Approaching
Discussion: The initial rainfall portion of this system fell between last night and this morning. The occluded front was enough to spark some lightning along a linear stormfront before the precipitation flattened out to a broader slug of rain. It
Snowfall Detected – Tomorrow Night
Discussion: First, let’s level some expectations. The snow potential for tomorrow (Thursday) into Friday is not a big deal. Given the time of year and surface temperature profile, it will be hard for significant accumulations to stack up outside of
Discussing First Snowfall for Some
Discussion: I’m not deducing much looking at upper-jet (250mb) winds. Slight deviations in either direction but no buckling. 500mb geopotential height anomalies paint a much better picture. I can see the existing ridge eroding by Wednesday to make way for
Great Weekend. But Things are Changing.
Discussion: This past Sunday, I began discussing a synoptic storm signal for premium Kaboom Club members. Now that it’s gaining traction, we can discuss it a little more in-detail. Let’s get the boring stuff out of the way first which
Temps Continue to Roller Coaster
Discussion: The upper jet will dip and flatten out into more of a zonal flow this weekend. Geopotential heights, analyzed at 500mb, will correlate with this with a reduction in positive anomalies to near-average. Far from a deep cold trough
Another Dry Temp Spike
Discussion: This week’s weather will continue to fall victim to a persistent ridging pattern. The current ridge is starting to depart which will put NJ under a warmer SW flow for Tues-Wed. On Thursday, the current ridge will handoff to
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