Warmer Pattern Sets Up
Discussion: I’m seeing a lot of ridging (see above image) building over the NE US for the next few weeks. This spells a warm pattern that could carry through the first third to half of January 2023. At the lower
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
Christmas Weather Outlook
Discussion: First and foremost, a Merry Christmas from our family to yours. If you celebrate something else, then happy that! And if you celebrate nothing at all, then I hope you had a great solstice and kick-off to winter. I
Strong Storm has Arrived
Discussion: Well, it’s pretty much go time for this much-anticipated strong storm and its New Jersey impacts. Precipitation has moved in and with the exception of the highest NWNJ elevations, has become rain for most/all of New Jersey. The Arctic
Strong Storm/Arctic Front Developing
Discussion: Right now (today – Wednesday) we have positive height anomalies overhead of the US east coast. This is because the SE Atlantic Ridge was allowed to build for the E US due to the upstream +PNA ridge being a
Strong Storm Detected for Thurs-Fri
Discussion: The expected storm system for this Thursday-Friday might not satisfy the snow lover with deep accumulations. But there are some powerful dynamics involved which could still produce hazardous conditions for holiday travel. Again, we’re chilly but not too cold
Pre-Christmas Storm Update
Discussion: I wanted to give it through 00Z model data tonight, at least to the GFS run, to confirm the trend that has occurred this weekend and what it means for the December 22-24 storm signal. It’s bad news for
Colder and Drier. Watching Next Week.
Discussion: The current system is pulling away to the NE. Behind it, we’re left with colder and drier W/NW flow at the surface (NW flow aloft). The temp and dew point should peel away from each other with a significantly
White Christmas Storm Signal
Discussion: The current system today should begin tapering off for SNJ after midnight tonight. It will continue to taper from SW to NE and will take longer for CNJ and then ultimately NNJ by later tomorrow. Most areas should clear
Coastal Storm Approaching
Discussion: Just a few small tweaks to a final forecast heading into the Thursday-Friday event that we’ve been tracking. Yesterday’s article covered all the principal dynamics involved and those have not changed: Primary low cuts into the Great Lakes, encounters
Another NNJ Snow Event Detected
Discussion: We’re now close enough to suggest a forecast for Thursday-Friday. We’ve watched this superblock linger near Greenland for a while now. This block will likely be located to the S of Greenland this Thursday-Friday. A primary surface low will
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