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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Temps Continue to Roller Coaster

Temps Continue to Roller Coaster

🕔14:21, 8.Nov 2024

Discussion: The upper jet will dip and flatten out into more of a zonal flow this weekend. Geopotential heights, analyzed at 500mb, will correlate with this with a reduction in positive anomalies to near-average. Far from a deep cold trough

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Another Dry Temp Spike

Another Dry Temp Spike

🕔13:37, 4.Nov 2024

Discussion: This week’s weather will continue to fall victim to a persistent ridging pattern. The current ridge is starting to depart which will put NJ under a warmer SW flow for Tues-Wed. On Thursday, the current ridge will handoff to

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Back to Fall for a Minute

Back to Fall for a Minute

🕔13:40, 1.Nov 2024

Discussion: The drought continues to worsen. We’ve had no synoptic rain systems (tropical remnants, nor’easter, coastal low, etc.) and almost every frontal passage (warm or cold) has been mostly dry through NJ. The cold front moving through today (Friday) started

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Warm for Halloween

Warm for Halloween

🕔13:36, 28.Oct 2024

Discussion: The rainfall situation remains dire. The front-side of high pressure gave many locations their first freeze overnight (Sunday night into Monday morning). NJ conditions will now moderate to above-average temperatures as the high sits overhead today (Monday) and moves

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Beautiful Days Crisp Nights

Beautiful Days Crisp Nights

🕔00:39, 22.Oct 2024

Discussion: An anomalous ridge over the NorthEast/Mid-Atlantic US is to blame for the current warm weather. Yes, it’s nice but out of place IMO. The more important story is the lack of rainfall pushing parts of NJ into a moderate/severe

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Warm and Dry. Go Figure.

Warm and Dry. Go Figure.

🕔01:08, 18.Oct 2024

Discussion: The trough has moved out and now the E US will be under the influence of a ridge this weekend into mid next week. This means above-average temperatures and continued dry conditions. The drought monitors are really starting to

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Fall Blows Back In

Fall Blows Back In

🕔22:56, 13.Oct 2024

Discussion: After our warmer weekend, we’re in for a transitional week. Those who saw 80s on Sunday afternoon could very well see 30s later this week overnight.  A large positive-tilted trough is establishing across the E US as a ridge

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Milder Weekend Reprise. Hard Back to Fall Next Week.

Milder Weekend Reprise. Hard Back to Fall Next Week.

🕔15:58, 10.Oct 2024

Discussion: The upper-jet is going to transition from a split-flow pattern across the E US to more of a large progressive trough by the end of this weekend. During the transition this weekend, New Jersey will spike a little milder

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Another Major Hurricane to Cripple W Florida

Another Major Hurricane to Cripple W Florida

🕔13:01, 9.Oct 2024

Discussion: This is another article that has little-to-no value for New Jersey weather interests. The only effect Hurricane Milton might have on New Jersey beaches are some slightly enhanced rip currents once Milton is out to sea near Bermuda later

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Fall to Strike Back

Fall to Strike Back

🕔14:04, 7.Oct 2024

Discussion: First we’ll talk about New Jersey this upcoming week. Then I will finish with some Hurricane Milton discussion. For this week in NJ, we have a split-flow upper jet pattern converging over the Mid-Atlantic US (analyzed at 250mb). At

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