Discussion: New Jersey will stay under below-average height anomalies until about Thursday night (lower heights). This will allow for a cooler stretch (highs only reach lower-50s and drop into 30s at night – coldest day Thursday). A weak and unorganized
Discussion: The 250mb jet wants to stay N of NJ for the near-future with the exception of a small dip mid-next week. We’ll talk about that later. That should keep geopotential heights neutral or higher than average (weak ridging) with
Discussion: It looks like the upper-jet should push N of NJ from now through Saturday and establish a weak but unsettled E US ridge. High pressure, to the N of Bermuda, will track eastward today and tomorrow as a low
Discussion: The upper jet (250mb) should rage a bit, from SW to NE, over the Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. 500mb analysis indicates a deep upper-low tracking from the Great Lakes into SE Canada but in a very progressive trough with
Discussion: Of every 10 years, about 1-2 winters feature way-below average snowfall and in some cases a big goose egg. This winter was one of those. It was nice however to see parts of NNJ squeeze out some snow accumulation
Discussion: After reviewing overnight mesoscale model guidance and comparing to live observations on SPC mesoscale analysis, we have the best idea we’re going to have heading into this system. This article and included snow impact map represents the final forecast
Discussion: A powerful nor’easter continues to brew which will bring major impacts to New England, NE PA, E NY, and NNJ between Monday and Tuesday. I won’t talk much more about what this is going to do to E NY
Discussion: A full-blown nor’easter could heavily impact most of New England, E NY State, NE PA, and NNJ pretty hard this Monday-Tuesday. We’re talking major interior snow accumulation, blizzard wind and visibility conditions, and coastal battering and flooding. Tomorrow (Sunday)
Discussion: White rain is becoming the theme of tonight/tomorrow’s snow/rain event. The lower-level environment, especially the critical baroclinic boundary layer, is simply too marginal in the lower levels. March climatology, ground heat retention, and higher sun angle are likely going
Discussion: Our first system (Friday-Saturday) is now within line of sight to begin forecasting. Still some time to monitor the Monday-Tuesday system. With that said, let’s set some expectations. You are about to see two maps. The first map represents
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