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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Mild Week Sets up Transient Cold Weekend

Mild Week Sets up Transient Cold Weekend

🕔13:18, 13.Feb 2023

Discussion: Our coastal storm cleared out earlier this morning but the back-side cold has not yet arrived. Remember this coastal storm was a small area of colder air within an overall/regional warm air mass. So as soon as we popped

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Coastal Storm Developing for Sunday Night

Coastal Storm Developing for Sunday Night

🕔15:42, 10.Feb 2023

Discussion: In the next 12 hours or so, the Upper-Level Low (ULL) should close off over E TX and begin moving towards the S Mid-Atlantic/SE US area. There’s already convection firing in the N Gulf of Mexico which will enhance

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Coastal Storm Detected

Coastal Storm Detected

🕔15:18, 9.Feb 2023

Discussion: A coastal storm will develop and impact parts of New Jersey later this weekend, mainly areas along and SE of the I-95 corridor with rain and wind. An Upper-Level Low (ULL) will break off from a very positive-tilted  Midwest

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Mostly Milder Conditions

Mostly Milder Conditions

🕔16:00, 6.Feb 2023

Discussion: We currently have a rather large and powerful (979mb) offshore storm tracking E away from the Mid-Atlantic US. This system represents the Feb 6-8 signal that we casually tracked for about a week, ultimately determining a miss out-to-sea. Had

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Arctic Air Approaching

Arctic Air Approaching

🕔14:38, 2.Feb 2023

Discussion: So we’ve been in first gear of the cold that started earlier this week and allowed some light snow across NJ, mainly CNJ/SNJ, yesterday morning. At some point between late tonight and tomorrow morning, we’ll shift into a whole

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Light Snow Approaching/Developing

Light Snow Approaching/Developing

🕔16:17, 31.Jan 2023

Discussion: The boundary, separating colder temps to the N and milder temps to the S is slowly pushing through NJ and should come to a rest just S/SE of NJ by later tonight. Temps should fall with sundown and the

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Arctic Air Returns Briefly

Arctic Air Returns Briefly

🕔14:30, 30.Jan 2023

Discussion: The weather pattern for the next 7 or so days will be dominated by two features. One is a piece of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV). The other is a frontal boundary that will act as a storm track

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Calmer Weekend. Watching Next Week for Wintry Potential.

Calmer Weekend. Watching Next Week for Wintry Potential.

🕔15:49, 26.Jan 2023

Discussion: The weekend is rather straightforward. As of right now (Thursday afternoon) it’s still windy out of the W/NW behind the departing system that brought snow and rain to NJ on Wednesday. These winds should continue howling into Thursday night

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Wednesday Snow Targeting NNJ before Rain

Wednesday Snow Targeting NNJ before Rain Updated

🕔16:58, 24.Jan 2023

Discussion: There’s a tremendous amount of model disagreement with now less than 24 hours before the start of precipitation. Most of it revolves around how far SE the extent of snow will be in New Jersey. The overall consensus is

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NNJ Snow Thump Detected

NNJ Snow Thump Detected Updated

🕔16:58, 23.Jan 2023

Discussion: This article will first cover the Wednesday-Thursday snow-to-rain event before we dive into some near-future signals I’m seeing. What we have been referring to as storm 1 arrived yesterday (as snow for NWNJ), precipitated overnight as mostly rain, and

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