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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Mixed Conditions Expected

Mixed Conditions Expected

🕔13:38, 17.Mar 2023

Discussion: The upper jet (250mb) should rage a bit, from SW to NE, over the Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. 500mb analysis indicates a deep upper-low tracking from the Great Lakes into SE Canada but in a very progressive trough with

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The “What Winter?” Sunsets

The “What Winter?” Sunsets

🕔15:49, 15.Mar 2023

Discussion: Of every 10 years, about 1-2 winters feature way-below average snowfall and in some cases a big goose egg. This winter was one of those. It was nice however to see parts of NNJ squeeze out some snow accumulation

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Final Call Heading into Tonight

Final Call Heading into Tonight Updated

🕔12:58, 13.Mar 2023

Discussion: After reviewing overnight mesoscale model guidance and comparing to live observations on SPC mesoscale analysis, we have the best idea we’re going to have heading into this system. This article and included snow impact map represents the final forecast

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Snow Map for Monday-Tuesday

Snow Map for Monday-Tuesday Updated

🕔16:58, 12.Mar 2023

Discussion: A powerful nor’easter continues to brew which will bring major impacts to New England, NE PA, E NY, and NNJ between Monday and Tuesday. I won’t talk much more about what this is going to do to E NY

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Major Snowfall Eyeing North Jersey

Major Snowfall Eyeing North Jersey

🕔16:41, 11.Mar 2023

Discussion: A full-blown nor’easter could heavily impact most of New England, E NY State, NE PA, and NNJ pretty hard this Monday-Tuesday. We’re talking major interior snow accumulation, blizzard wind and visibility conditions, and coastal battering and flooding. Tomorrow (Sunday)

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Snow Lover Nightmares Continue

Snow Lover Nightmares Continue

🕔14:32, 10.Mar 2023

Discussion: White rain is becoming the theme of tonight/tomorrow’s snow/rain event. The lower-level environment, especially the critical baroclinic boundary layer, is simply too marginal in the lower levels. March climatology, ground heat retention, and higher sun angle are likely going

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Weekend Snow Map

Weekend Snow Map

🕔12:54, 9.Mar 2023

Discussion: Our first system (Friday-Saturday) is now within line of sight to begin forecasting. Still some time to monitor the Monday-Tuesday system. With that said, let’s set some expectations. You are about to see two maps. The first map represents

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Winter Storm Detected for Friday-Saturday

Winter Storm Detected for Friday-Saturday

🕔16:22, 8.Mar 2023

Discussion: A winter storm is targeting NNJ with plowable snowfall this Friday PM-Saturday AM. A primary low will track along the N stream into NWPA by Friday night. Energy will then transfer to a secondary low spawning just off Delmarva/OBX

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Weekend Snow Detected

Weekend Snow Detected

🕔14:43, 7.Mar 2023

Discussion: Yesterday I was told by many that it couldn’t possibly snow in NNJ/CNJ last night because it was [insert temperature] degrees outside. Hopefully there is a better understanding now that “it is going to snow where it wants to

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Snow Tonight fo NNJ/CNJ

Snow Tonight fo NNJ/CNJ Updated

🕔12:58, 6.Mar 2023

Discussion: We have a few things to talk about. Many are ready for spring weather conditions and all the activities that accompany such. The snow lovers however are in denial at this point evident by the many “I will believe

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