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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Unsettled Pattern Continues

Unsettled Pattern Continues

🕔12:08, 27.Jun 2023

Discussion: Yesterday was a rough one along and NW of I-95. Areas SE of such saw little-to-nothing. This was mainly due to the best atmospheric dynamics occurring away from the ocean and for points N. SNJ/SENJ also saw a lot

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Thunderstorm Outbreak Expected Tonight

Thunderstorm Outbreak Expected Tonight

🕔09:44, 26.Jun 2023

Discussion: Today should be the stormiest day of this entire rainy and stormy stretch. Much of today will be spent in a warm sector with S flow ahead of a storm front. Isolated-to-scattered storm cells are possible today before the

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Wetter Pattern Sustains

Wetter Pattern Sustains

🕔11:38, 23.Jun 2023

Discussion: The only upper-level feature that’s noteworthy is a steep and narrow trough with decent jet streaks to occur next Wednesday into next weekend. This should ultimately break the wet pattern that we’re in as a surface cold front clears

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Summer Pattern Developing Right on Time

Summer Pattern Developing Right on Time

🕔16:10, 19.Jun 2023

Discussion: We’re nearing the end of the dominant lower geopotential heights pattern we’ve been in. For this next week or so, there’s not much to talk about in the upper levels. 250-500mb appears very mundane. The lower-mid levels will have

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Conditions Improve

Conditions Improve

🕔15:03, 16.Jun 2023

Discussion: The stormfront is just pushing offshore (as of Friday afternoon). Lower geopotential heights will continue to dominate, with a less hot but stormy surface pattern, until around/just after the summer solstice. From now until then expect isolated showers and

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More Thunderstorms Expected Tomorrow

More Thunderstorms Expected Tomorrow

🕔15:06, 15.Jun 2023

Discussion: This article is a bummer to write as I had plans to play golf with my buddies tomorrow. But here we are. As I’ve been covering in the weekly and weekend outlooks, the entire Mid-Atlantic US – and most

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Rain and Storms Start the Week

Rain and Storms Start the Week

🕔14:16, 12.Jun 2023

Discussion: I feel like a broken record at this point but lower geopotential heights will continue to dominate the region’s weather pattern. A series of upper-lows should meander over our region for the foreseeable future. Most models are holding off

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Fire Haze Breaks Down

Fire Haze Breaks Down

🕔14:24, 9.Jun 2023

Discussion: The Canadian wildfires were caused by a convective linear stormfront (by lightning) that pushed through a very dry area of SE Canada. The stubborn blocking pattern in Canada is what has caused the cooler temps for our region over

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Below Average but still Beautiful

Below Average but still Beautiful

🕔15:17, 5.Jun 2023

Discussion: You’ve probably seen some news content about the cooler weather pattern sustaining until mid-June. That’s true. Avg NJ temps for today are ~78 and they swell to lower-80s by June 15. We may break 80 for a few days

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Mini Heat Wave Concludes

Mini Heat Wave Concludes

🕔13:00, 2.Jun 2023

Discussion: Weather conditions will be very transitional from today to tomorrow. Our mini heat wave peaks today but a cold front will push in from the N/NE overnight yielding a much cooler Saturday-forward. You might have heard of a back-door

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