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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Dec 29: Arctic Air Approaching!

Dec 29: Arctic Air Approaching!

🕔11:03, 29.Dec 2014

As referenced last week, Arctic high pressure is dropping out of Canada into the US over Montana. Associated anti-cyclonic flow is pushing an Arctic cold front through the eastern US. Starting tomorrow and heading into the weekend, you’ll see the

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Cold Week Expected (Dec 29-Jan 2)

Cold Week Expected (Dec 29-Jan 2)

🕔21:12, 28.Dec 2014

Monday should be the last mild-ish day for a while. Arctic high pressure systems are beginning to drop out of Canada into the western plains—a sign that old man winter is finally coming. Let’s take it day by day: Monday

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Weekend Starts Mild and Ends Wet (Dec 26-28)

Weekend Starts Mild and Ends Wet (Dec 26-28)

🕔12:05, 26.Dec 2014

High pressure is in full control for Friday and Saturday which will continue the dry and mild theme for this time of year. Some light rain could show up on Sunday which could end as snow in the Monday-Tuesday window. All

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Dec 24: Monitoring next Monday-Wednesday for Snow

Dec 24: Monitoring next Monday-Wednesday for Snow

🕔14:06, 24.Dec 2014

The rain will clear out overnight and the weekend looks pretty good with high pressure in full control. For a few runs now and on multiple models, a weak low pressure disturbance looks to follow the departing high next Monday-Wednesday.

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Dec 23: Arctic Outbreak Detected!

Dec 23: Arctic Outbreak Detected!

🕔14:38, 23.Dec 2014

The Polar Vortex is on-deck and ready to bat the entire eastern 2/3 of the US into below-average temperatures. We can expect this to happen starting around December 29th and lasting into January. We’re warm until then and we don’t

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Christmas Week Forecast (Dec 22-26)

Christmas Week Forecast (Dec 22-26)

🕔17:38, 21.Dec 2014

A powerful low pressure disturbance will form and move into the Great Lakes region this week. Models generally have the synoptic disturbance in the 965mb-980mb range of intensity which will eventually help change the entire pattern over the US. For

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Chilly but Dry Weekend Expected (Dec 19-21)

Chilly but Dry Weekend Expected (Dec 19-21)

🕔21:27, 18.Dec 2014

Temperatures should be seasonal if not slightly below average this weekend. Weak but high pressure will have control of the entire region. As far as next week goes, there’s tremendous uncertainty of storm track(s) and precipitation types with a common theme

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Dec 17: White Christmas Chances Decreasing

Dec 17: White Christmas Chances Decreasing

🕔17:14, 17.Dec 2014

Model guidance has trended away even further from a New Jersey snow storm this Saturday-Sunday. The current modeled forecast for the weekend appears to be some light rain Saturday night followed by scattered snow showers on Sunday morning with accumulations

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Dec 16: Weekend Storm and White Christmas Update

Dec 16: Weekend Storm and White Christmas Update

🕔19:40, 16.Dec 2014

We’ve got a lot to talk about! First, the weekend storm now looks like it will take a southerly track which would bring more of a light to moderate snow event to the region Saturday night into Sunday. The massive

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Dec 15: Weekend Winter Storm Update

Dec 15: Weekend Winter Storm Update

🕔20:04, 15.Dec 2014

Model guidance continues to suggest an east coast winter snow storm this weekend. A few other models have hopped on the train as well. Timing now looks like Saturday into Sunday which could cause holiday shopping headaches and possibly a White

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