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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Feb 12: Initial Weekend Snow Map & Discussion

Feb 12: Initial Weekend Snow Map & Discussion

🕔16:42, 12.Feb 2015

The Arctic outbreak of cold air is the main story which begins tonight, peaks between Sunday-Monday and lasts well into next week. As far as snow potential goes, it’s now time to focus on the Saturday-Sunday period. Another clipper will

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Feb 11: What to Expect for Thursday-Friday

Feb 11: What to Expect for Thursday-Friday

🕔19:23, 11.Feb 2015

A weak clipper system is currently moving in from the W/NW. It will transfer to the coast and intensify as it pulls away but probably too late for any substantial impact to New Jersey. All I’m going to leave on

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Feb 10: Watching Two Snow Possibilities

Feb 10: Watching Two Snow Possibilities

🕔19:10, 10.Feb 2015

We’re now in the heart of peak snow season in the mid-Atlantic US. Hours of sunlight are increasing daily by minutes but coastal ocean sea surface temperatures are bottoming out for the year in the upper 30s. This is a big

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Feb 10: Arctic Outbreak Detected!

Feb 10: Arctic Outbreak Detected!

🕔11:24, 10.Feb 2015

Models are unanimously in agreement about a very cold period in the ~February 13-18 time-frame. A piece of the Polar Vortex will break off and drop over the E. US. The trough could reach as far south as Florida. This is

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Feb 9: Watching Thursday-Friday for Snow

Feb 9: Watching Thursday-Friday for Snow

🕔11:48, 9.Feb 2015

As today’s disturbance moves away by early Tuesday morning, it will pull down cold air behind it from the north. A clipper is modeled to move across the Great Lakes and transfer southward to a coastal low formation this Thursday-Friday.

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Feb 8: Final Call on Winter Storm

Feb 8: Final Call on Winter Storm

🕔15:27, 8.Feb 2015

The main headline for this storm will be ice in CNJ and NNJ. Snow has become a much lesser concern regardless of the significant accumulations still possible in NNJ. SNJ will have the least amount of wintry impact with mostly

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Feb 6: Winter Storm Update

Feb 6: Winter Storm Update

🕔19:10, 6.Feb 2015

The northerly trend in model guidance appears to have halted now that better data sampling has been fed into their algorithms. Precipitation should begin falling Sunday evening and taper off Tuesday morning. We’re dealing with another snow/rain line moving northward

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Feb 5: Winter Storm Update

Feb 5: Winter Storm Update

🕔21:49, 5.Feb 2015

Model guidance has trended northward overnight and today. A low pressure track from Pittsburgh through SNJ was modeled by the GFS and Canadian. The Euro was south of both runs with low pressure moving from just south of Pittsburgh through

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Feb 4: Winter Storm Detected!

Feb 4: Winter Storm Detected!

🕔20:37, 4.Feb 2015

Model guidance is in agreement that an Arctic frontal boundary will push southward and stall somewhere over the SNJ area this Sunday-Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure will crawl along this boundary due to strong high pressure to the

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Feb 4: Arctic Front + Ocean Effect + Overrunning = Potential for Snow Beginning Sunday!

Feb 4: Arctic Front + Ocean Effect + Overrunning = Potential for Snow Beginning Sunday!

🕔14:12, 4.Feb 2015

Im going to say this right off the bat. IT IS NOT GOING TO SNOW FOR 120 HOURS STRAIGHT! Lets be clear on this. Yes it will snow beginning early Sunday morning and it appears that we may be in

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