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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Saturday Morning Snow Developing

Saturday Morning Snow Developing

🕔16:38, 14.Feb 2024

Discussion: Today (Wednesday) has a much colder feel to it especially with the winds. Most areas (less the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts) are struggling to break out of the 30s. Tonight we’ll dip into the 20s and ultimately bottom-out in the

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More Snow Detected for New Jersey

More Snow Detected for New Jersey

🕔15:17, 13.Feb 2024

Discussion: The last flakes have cleared the coast, and this storm is history. What an incredibly challenging storm to forecast. The entire E US felt like it had a million moving parts in the atmosphere. Nothing big, solid, or easy

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Snowstorm Approaching New Jersey

Snowstorm Approaching New Jersey Updated

🕔15:56, 12.Feb 2024

Discussion: You can roll up yesterday’s first call snow map and throw it in the garbage. The trend northward in model guidance that occurred between Saturday and Sunday morning juked everyone out of their socks including us and even the

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North Jersey Winter Storm Developing

North Jersey Winter Storm Developing Updated

🕔14:56, 11.Feb 2024

Discussion: After a lengthy analysis of this thread-the-needle system, we are ready to make an actual forecast. I’m going to start this article the same way I did the last two…with an expectation set. 1 – This storm is still

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Snowstorm Eyeing North Jersey Tuesday

Snowstorm Eyeing North Jersey Tuesday

🕔14:43, 10.Feb 2024

Discussion: I want to re-emphasize a few points from my article two days ago. 1 – This Tuesday storm is not within the favorable snowstorm pattern that is developing. That begins right after this storm, and I still expect at

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Snowstorm Detected Early Next Week

Snowstorm Detected Early Next Week

🕔18:54, 8.Feb 2024

Discussion: The chances for at least some, possibly a lot, of New Jersey seeing a snowstorm early next week are increasing. I know it’s hard to imagine the possibility given how mild today through Monday will be. But we do

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Spring Tease Precedes Winter Finale

Spring Tease Precedes Winter Finale

🕔15:06, 6.Feb 2024

Discussion: This article is a deeper dive into the next few weeks. Let’s first talk about the expected warmup to occur later this week. Today and tomorrow are still somewhat cooler (highs in the 40s lows in the 20s for

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Clear and Sunny but Colder

Clear and Sunny but Colder

🕔15:05, 1.Feb 2024

Discussion: There’s not much to discuss until we approach the more favorable cold/snow pattern later this month. Today (Thursday) was mild but tomorrow will feel different. A slug of pecip should push through NJ overnight tonight from W/NW to E/SE

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February Snow Pattern Emerging

February Snow Pattern Emerging

🕔16:46, 31.Jan 2024

Discussion: Before we talk about this “NSFW snow lover content” I want to set a few expectations and reality checks. First, big snow is not guaranteed every year in New Jersey. Heck, sometimes even small snow is not guaranteed every

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January Thaw to Conclude this Week

January Thaw to Conclude this Week

🕔15:51, 29.Jan 2024

Discussion: Our weak thread-the-needle system has departed, leaving NNJ only with a graze of mixed wintry precipitation and under temporary N/NW flow. This will produce a colder night tonight (Monday night) than what we’ve gotten used to for the past

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