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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Clear and Sunny but Colder

Clear and Sunny but Colder

🕔15:05, 1.Feb 2024

Discussion: There’s not much to discuss until we approach the more favorable cold/snow pattern later this month. Today (Thursday) was mild but tomorrow will feel different. A slug of pecip should push through NJ overnight tonight from W/NW to E/SE

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February Snow Pattern Emerging

February Snow Pattern Emerging

🕔16:46, 31.Jan 2024

Discussion: Before we talk about this “NSFW snow lover content” I want to set a few expectations and reality checks. First, big snow is not guaranteed every year in New Jersey. Heck, sometimes even small snow is not guaranteed every

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January Thaw to Conclude this Week

January Thaw to Conclude this Week

🕔15:51, 29.Jan 2024

Discussion: Our weak thread-the-needle system has departed, leaving NNJ only with a graze of mixed wintry precipitation and under temporary N/NW flow. This will produce a colder night tonight (Monday night) than what we’ve gotten used to for the past

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Another System Approaching NJ. Snow Graze for NNJ

Another System Approaching NJ. Snow Graze for NNJ

🕔16:50, 27.Jan 2024

Discussion: Just a few small adaptations on today’s impact map. Let’s just walk through it in phases. Our break in the rain will end tonight (Saturday) around midnight as more rain moves into the region from the W and spreads

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Snow to Graze North Jersey Sunday-Monday AM

Snow to Graze North Jersey Sunday-Monday AM Updated

🕔16:56, 26.Jan 2024

Discussion: We are supposed to be in a warmer non-snowy pattern right now…between the colder pattern earlier this month and before the colder pattern to set up in February. However sometimes a system threads the needle in a crappy pattern.

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Wait, it could snow again on Monday?

Wait, it could snow again on Monday?

🕔15:01, 24.Jan 2024

Discussion: The January thaw is underway, and rain is starting to trickle into the region. Rain will fill into more of NJ overnight tonight (Wednesday night) with a more widespread rain expected through Thursday ending Friday morning. We should then

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January Thaw Begins. Winter Not Over.

January Thaw Begins. Winter Not Over.

🕔15:38, 22.Jan 2024

Discussion: It’s been a very busy stretch for me since New Year’s Eve. Between three separate events so far in January (1/6, 1/16, and 1/19), most of NJ saw a period of snow. The 1/6 event dropped 8-12+ across NNJ,

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Snow Approaching New Jersey

Snow Approaching New Jersey Updated

🕔16:56, 18.Jan 2024

Discussion: We’ve beat this system to death for over a week now as a long-tern storm signal coming into fruition. We discussed the physics of an InVerted Trough (IVT) and what it means for surrounding areas. You can look back

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How much will it snow this Friday?

How much will it snow this Friday?

🕔16:56, 17.Jan 2024

Discussion: A clear and cold day today is followed by a colder night. None of NJ will make it above freezing today and tonight temps should range from 10-25 from NNJ elevations to the most extreme SENJ coast (most of

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Dangerous Ice Tonight. Onto Friday.

Dangerous Ice Tonight. Onto Friday.

🕔14:18, 16.Jan 2024

Discussion: Precipitation should end over the next hour or two as a final slug of moisture moves off Delmarva and scrapes SENJ/ECNJ. Temps are dropping from W to E and rather fast now. Much of NJ is below freezing at

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