Discussion: A disappointing turnout this morning if you love snow. The Arctic front verified slower than all computer model guidance but is still definitely coming through. Temperatures should fall for the rest of today and especially after sunset tonight. I expect overnight lows to range from about 10 to 20 N to S by early tomorrow (Friday) morning.
Saturday’s snow potential still looks like a miss to the S/E of NJ given the progressive alignment of the short waves involved. I’ll still keep the chance for snow showers, maybe even a band or two, to graze SNJ/SENJ (Cumberland/Cape May/Atlantic/S Ocean) Saturday morning but much of NJ should just be on the colder and drier NW side of the storm. Anything that falls would stick given the Arctic cold setup but again, most models miss just to the SE of NJ.
The next signal I’m watching is Tuesday-Wednesday, January 25-26. I know there was a fantasy blizzard on the 29th on the GFS but at this point (9 days out) I would consider it just that…fantasy. If a few models pick up on it by the time we’re 5 days out then it will become something to track. For now, I am watching Tues-Wed next for two short waves to interact over the E US. The GFS does it for a NNJ Snow/SNJ rain event. The Euro has less SW interaction and is a no-go. That’s only 5 days away though and the GFS has been outperforming the Euro from this range. I’ll casually watch over the weekend and will report accordingly if the threat intensifies. By Sunday we could only be two days away. Otherwise, the active pattern continues but without perfect blocking. This makes storm track potential much more volatile which as you can obviously see, the models are struggling with. In the meantime, prepare for some dangerously cold Arctic air mass to settle across NJ for this weekend.
Friday (Jan 21) high temperatures should fail to escape the 20s. Skies should be clear with light-to-breezy winds out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-zero to near-20 from NWNJ elevations to SENJ coasts.
Saturday (Jan 22) high temperatures should reach the 20s for most and maybe near-30 for a sliver of SENJ closest to the ocean. Skies should remain clear for most with winds subsiding/calming out of the N. Overnight lows should range from lower-teens to lower-20s from N to S.
Sunday (Jan 23) high temperatures should reach near-30 for most. NJTP/95 and SE should rise back above freezing, possibly for the first time since today (Thursday)…but only just into the mid-30s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Overnight lows should range from lower-teens to lower-20s from N to S.
An early look at next week indicates cold conditions continuing for most days. Highs would top out in the low-mid 30s and overnight lows would drop into teens/20s. Tuesday is the only day where temps look to moderate with the Tues-Wed signal. It’s still yet to be determined where a snow/rain line would set up since we are still just casually monitoring the signal. I’ll report over the weekend if there are any big changes with it but we are only 5 days away. I’m sorry if this offends anyone but the snow pattern feels very pregnant IMO. Something should eventually pop out of it. It looks to remain that way for the rest of January into early February. In the meantime, please stay warm and be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™