Arctic Air Returns Briefly

Discussion: The weather pattern for the next 7 or so days will be dominated by two features. One is a piece of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV). The other is a frontal boundary that will act as a storm track for Tuesday night’s/Wednesday morning’s light snow event. So the coldest air of planet will be back on our side of the N Hemisphere. It will push into SE Canada which will have quite a chilling impact on the NorthEast and Mid-Atlantic US later this week. We currently (Monday) have a rainy low departing the OBX area. The N winds behind this low will help pull the frontal boundary down to about the VA/NC lateral border. This will be the first gear of cold and will set the stage for a possible light snow event between Tuesday PM and early Wednesday AM. The upper levels will be cold but the surface (most of the baroclinic boundary) will be marginal. For any snow that does fall in this period, it could struggle to stick for immediate SNJ/SENJ coasts. It will like stick better away from the ocean in SNJ closer to the Pine Barrens. But either way, we could wake up to a C-1 accumulation, mostly on natural surfaces Wednesday. Brined roads likely fine for AM commuting. Sometimes these SNJ express systems overperform so will have to watch. But an evidence-based call right now is only C-1. We’ll then stay in first gear of cold until Friday morning. By noon Friday, an Arctic cold front will push through from the NW which we can call second gear of cold. This should set up a brutal cold period between Friday and Sunday morning. Highs will stay below freezing and negative temps are possible for NWNJ elevations. This potent cold shot will suppress the storm track further S of NJ and likely keep any weekend snowstorm hopes to the S of NJ as well. The last signal I am curious about is Feb 6-8 but that’s another thread the needle event which I won’t get any hopes up about unless there are big changes over next few days. Then after that, February looks to remain above-average in temperature with an unfavorable pattern for snow development. It can still happen but let’s be honest, it’s one of the worst winters (re snow) that we’ve had in probably a decade. With our luck, we’ll probably have a cold and snowy March into April. There’s already a possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) that might happen at the end of Feb which could produce such. We’re through the 6^th inning of winter and still down quite a few runs.

Monday (Jan 30) high temperatures are maxing in the low-to-mid 50s. Another few degrees to go and then we’ll start falling through sunset. Skies are currently mixed with cloud coverage likely to increase into tonight. Winds are light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to coasts with a few passing showers around.

Tuesday (Jan 31) high temperatures should stay just under 40 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall below freezing for all of NJ except maybe extreme SNJ/SENJ coastal areas staying near-freezing. A light snow event could begin late Tuesday night.

Wednesday (Feb 1) high temperatures should eventually make it into the upper-30s for most areas. But before that, temps will be below freezing to start in the morning for the rest of any light snow. As of right now, it doesn’t look like maybe “a coating to an inch” aka C-1 across SNJ (S of I-195). Nothing serious and likely to melt as temps climb back above freezing. Roads should be fine for AM commute especially if brined. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should then drop into the 20s for all areas, possibly teens for NWNJ elevations.

Thursday (Feb 2) high temperatures should reach near-40 again with mixed skies. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should then range from 20-30 from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Feb 3) high temperatures should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to coasts. A much colder day with an Arctic frontal passage. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from negative single digits to 15 from elevations to coasts…most of the state down to single digits.

An early look at the weekend indicates a brutally cold start on Saturday with high temps ranging from mid-teens to lower-20s. Winds should eventually relax out of the N/NW by Saturday night but with it, another cold night well below freezing. Sunday would then bounce back with highs back into the mid-to-upper 30s. All snowstorm activity likely suppressed to the S of NJ this weekend. Watching one other signal in the Feb 6-8 period but like all signals this winter, far from a slam dunk.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC