Another Rainy Weekend?

Jonathan Carr
By October 10, 2023 16:34

Another Rainy Weekend?

Forecast Discussion: There seems to be a lot of interest in the rain this weekend. Seems we’ve gotten into a weekend rain pattern with weekdays featuring immaculate fall weather conditions. Ah well, it happens. This weekend doesn’t look too crazy though. I’m only seeing a nuisance rain event, not a dangerous or destructive one, outside of typical rain safety concerns.

What’s interesting is the general synoptic setup. We have a primary low transferring to a secondary low near the coast…a Miller-B style system. If this was winter, we’d be very concerned about the primary low precipitation drying up while the secondary low takes over. This is the mechanism that robs many of the interior of snow while NJ and coastal areas see the most snow from the re-developed coastal secondary low. I think that’s what we’re going to see this weekend.

Lets first discuss the great conditions that should stay with us in NJ through Friday. We have a low, stacked at multiple levels, N of the Great Lakes in Canada. That low is spinning and providing W flow on its southern side for NJ and much of the mid-latitudes…a zonal US pattern which the weekend system will ride in on. But from today through Friday, NJ is mostly dry and sunny with cooler W winds. Expect highs in the upper-60s/near-70 and lows down to the 40s for most of NJ away from the ocean (50s along coast). Beautiful days!

Saturday morning might be salvageable for outdoor stuff but clouds will be developing ahead of the expected rain start which looks like Saturday afternoon, possibly late-Saturday morning. You’ll be able to see the rain approaching from the W/NW on radar. It should then rain on-and-off Saturday overnight into Sunday morning. Most models are averaging between a half-inch and 1.5 inches of rainfall from Saturday noon to Sunday noon. A lull is then expected for Sunday but I can’t promise there won’t be clouds, on-and-off sprinkles, and light-mod winds around. This could be the theme into Monday as well.

We’re then looking at a coastal system mid-next-week (Tuesday-Thursday) which could bring an additional rain event to NJ but I’d like to get into this weekend first to see how the models react and change for next week’s potential coastal rain system.

In English: Today through Friday should sustain the gorgeous fall conditions we’ve gotten used to since Sunday morning. Perhaps a few degrees warmer than the Monday morning shock factor but still in the ballpark of fall, not late-summer. Comfortable days and chilly nights. Rain then arrives by Saturday afternoon, possibly as early as late-Saturday morning and rains on-and-off until about noon on Sunday. A half-inch to 1.5 inches of rain across the Garden State with winds not too bad. A nuisance event, not a gas the generators up event. We then see a break/end to the rain for Sunday afternoon-Monday with more rain and wind possible next Tues-Thurs. Let’s take it a few days at a time. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By October 10, 2023 16:34

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