Discussion: As of right now (Monday afternoon, April 17), a cold front is just passing through, powered by a Great Lakes trough/upper-low and surface low further N in Canada. This is going to set up a cooler/colder period this evening through Wednesday morning. Tonight (Monday night) should be the breezier of the two colder nights but not the coldest. Tomorrow night (Tuesday night) should feature calmer winds and clear skies which should produce the coldest temperatures of the two nights via dynamic cooling. Tuesday daytime hours should be the coldest day of the week. The trough/upper-low will be transient with milder flow returning by Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon should feel great in the sun as some spots approach 70. We’ll then jump a gear towards summer-like weather again with 80s Thursday, Friday, and at least Saturday (maybe some of Sunday). More E US ridging with a high W of Bermuda (W flow for us). Humidity looks low for all of this leading up to Sunday. The W flow will take dews down into the 40s/50s while temps hit in the 80s. Relative humidity at 50% or less at times. This will feel great but is horrible for forest fire risk. Please use common sense with fire prevention. At this point, it seems like a small period of higher humidity (Sunday AM-afternoon) will ride just ahead of the cold front expected Sunday night into Monday. That front could bring rain and storms through NJ which I’ll be tracking this week. We’ll then likely turn cooler to start next week (behind the cold front)…with cooler meaning highs near 60 and lows near 40. Then back to milder temps. Very roller coaster-ish over next few weeks with both milder and cooler conditions not lasting more than 48-72 hours at a time.
Monday (April 17) high temperatures should top out in the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ areas. A few spots might touch 70 before the cold front pushes through by afternoon. Skies should continue to improve but with increasing breezy winds out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.
Tuesday (April 18) high temperatures should only reach the 50s for most NJ areas. Immediate coastal regions might just push over 60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s away from the ocean but likely stay above freezing. Certainly some frost potential. Immediate coastal areas should hang in the 40s. Tuesday and Tuesday night should be the coldest day and night of the week.
Wednesday (April 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas…a transitional day back to a milder/warmer pattern Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.
Thursday (April 20) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most NJ areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best chance to break 80. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 50 to 60 from N to S.
Friday (April 21) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most spots away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas might hang in the 70s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 50 to 60 from N to S.
An early look at the weekend indicates another warmer Saturday and a transitional Sunday (warm to cool). There’s a chance for a strong cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon-evening which would, in-theory, mean rain and storms possibly severe. I’ll be following this more closely in the next few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™