Another Mostly Nice Weekend

Discussion: Yesterday’s frontal precipitation and storms came through ahead of the overnight cold front which is now out to sea. A few surprise downpours/storms for ECNJ/SENJ earlier in the day from some warm sector isolated cells. But the front itself came through around 9-11pm delivering multiple rounds of on-and-off precipitation (thin rain strips). Mostly breezy rain. I saw a sharp temp and dew drop last night on my weather station when the front moved through my area. Today we are in the wake of it with dry and sunny conditions. A broad and elongated area of high pressure should hold New Jersey under great October fall conditions through tonight (chilly), all of tomorrow (beautiful but breezy PM), and most of Sunday. Some steadier rain is then expected later Sunday night into Monday but isolated showers earlier Sunday are on the table due to a weak upper-level disturbance. Models seem focused on this for SNJ/SENJ but again, it looks very isolated. Later Sunday night into Monday looks like more of a scattered rain disturbance but not widespread. The low that occluded off the jet from last night’s front will then kick another cold front through our region between Monday night and Tuesday morning. This should then bring an “ok, it’s starting to get cold” air mass to New Jersey from Tuesday AM through at least Friday. We’re talking highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s on average. Lots of frost potential. Freeze possible the colder spots (NNJ elevations/SENJ Pine Barrens). Could go even colder than that overnight with radiational cooling. Let’s see how it looks in a few days.

Friday (Oct 14) high temperatures are just about peaking in the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies are clear and should remain that way tonight. Winds have subsided to just light out of the NW. Expect overnight lows to drop into a range of 35-45 from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (Oct 15) high temperatures should hover in the upper-60s/lower-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a breeze out of the S picking up by afternoon/evening. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts. Saturday is Long Beach Island’s Chowderfest!

Sunday (Oct 16) high temperatures should reach near-70 again. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for daytime hours. Rain showers could move in during overnight hours. Just a small chance of earlier isolated showers and mainly for SNJ/SENJ. NWNJ down to the turnpike/95 corridor seem to be okay. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should again range from lower-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.

This weekend in a sentence: More great October fall weather conditions are around until rain possibly moves in by late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

An early look at next week indicates the milder (upper-60s) rain spilling into most of Monday. Once the cold front pushes through (by Monday night/Tuesday morning), the rest of the week then looks drier and colder with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. This will probably force a lot of heaters on for the first time for those who have held out. Looks like the coldest general air mass yet for October. We’ve had a few transient nights of this so far but next week should be more of a prolonged thing. All in alignment with the general march towards winter months. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™