Another Mild Period (Feb 20-24)

More mild weather is on the way and possibly even some natural fireworks for the weekend. Let’s break it down…

Disco: Northerly flow, currently associated with the front-side of weak approaching high pressure, has chilled the region down. This should keep today and tomorrow on the cooler side, relative to the past few days, but still mild and sunny. Southerly return-flow from departing high pressure should then warm the region back up starting Wednesday. This should push highs back into the 60s for many. An approaching low pressure system should then sustain the milder conditions with warm sector flow Friday and Saturday. This presents a rain chance for Friday and possibly rain plus thunderstorms for Saturday as a cold front moves through later Saturday evening. It’s still a bit early to jump on a thunderstorm forecast for Saturday night however this currently does have my attention.

Monday (Feb 20 – better late than never) high temperatures should range from upper-40s for NNJ to possibly flirting with 60 in SNJ. Most should reach into at least the mid-50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ likely dipping into the 20s.

Tuesday (Feb 21) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for NNJ and 50s for the rest of New Jersey. Skies should transition from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s and 40s with a small chance of isolated rain showers during pre-dawn hours (better chance for points NW). .

Wednesday (Feb 22) high temperatures should break 60 for at least most of SNJ. NNJ could be held in the 50s. After a small early-AM shower, skies should improve and clear for most of the day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s. Only NNJ would have a chance at dipping into the upper-30s.

Thursday (Feb 23) high temperatures should take a strong run at 70+, especially for CNJ and SNJ. NNJ and immediate coastal areas might be held in the 60s. We’ll see. These warm periods tend to over-perform with surface temps. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s likely statewide.

Friday (Feb 24) high temperatures should range from 60-70 across the state with interior CNJ/SNJ closer to 70. Skies should be mostly cloudy with pockets of rain possible along an advancing warm front. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates more mild temperatures for Saturday but that could come with rain and thunderstorms. I’ll be watching severe weather parameters all week and should have a better handle on this by Thursday. A cold front would then move through Saturday night into Sunday resulting in cooler and drier conditions for Sunday. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Image Credit: I took this last year towards the end of Seven Bridges Road (Great Bay Blvd) in Little Egg Harbor, NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™